GIH says Kuwaiti share index to hit 13,000 level

Kuwait's Global Investment House forecast on Sunday that Kuwait's soaring benchmark stock index will rise to 13,000 points in the medium term as the profits of listed firms grow.
That would mean a rise of 22 percent for the Kuwait Stock Exchange (KSE) index from its Sunday close, when it reached a new record high of 10,648.90. The index is up 66 percent in the year to date.
"We now upgrade our call for KSE to reach 13,000-points in medium term, keeping in mind substantial growth in the profits, and expectation of the market P/E to be in the current range of around 12 times," said Omar el-Quqa, Global's executive vice president.
In March 2005, Global had forecast the index would breach the psychological mark of 8,000 points and rise to 10,000 points, a prediction that has come true faster than expected amid improved economic fundamentals.
"However, what is important to know (is) that the factors that led us to assume the strong growth in markets are present even now, on a more positive scale," Quqa added.
"Most importantly, oil prices have been ranging at higher levels, placing the economy on a sound footing. The government's attitude has become more pro-privatisation, which promises well for the longer-term growth of the economy," Quqa said.
Other factors boosting the market include an increase in liquidity, due partly to improved per capita income and the propensity to invest in capital markets, he said.
Interest rates, though rising, are still at low levels, he added.
"We believe that the robust state of the economy, which has prompted the interest rate hike, has created enough wealth to offset any slight pick-up in the rates," Quqa said.
"Apart from these fundamental factors, we expect the market to get a much-needed leg-up from a more stable geopolitical situation," he noted.
He said the Kuwait Stock Exchange continued to be the cheapest among its Gulf peers.
"In the first half of 2005, the corporates and banks reported a whopping increase of around 82 percent in net profit as compared to the corresponding period of the previous year and we expect this trend to continue for the full-year results as well," Quqa added.