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Hundreds of people dutifully sink onto the grass in a field on Zanzibar's Pemba island at the command of their leader Seif Sharif Hamad. It's not a mark of respect but a warm-up for protests.
"If you sit in this peaceful manner and they use the water cannons on you, the whole world will see what kind of people they are," said Hamad, head of the opposition Civic United Front (CUF). "Practise this whenever you meet."
Renowned as a relaxed tourist paradise, semi-autonomous Zanzibar is on edge, fearing violence ahead of October 30 presidential and parliamentary polls across Tanzania.
The CUF fears the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party will rig the results on the Indian Ocean spice islands, where a string of violent brawls between rival supporters has already poisoned the pre-election atmosphere.
The rising tensions on the palm-fringed islands are an embarrassment to Tanzania's mainland government, which has carefully nurtured its image as one of Africa's most stable countries despite what critics call a record of brutality and electoral dirty tricks in Zanzibar.
It is not the first time the east African country's reputation has been sullied by violence on the archipelago which united with the mainland Tanganyika in 1964 to create Tanzania.
In 2001, dozens of CUF supporters were killed in clashes with police during protests over ballot-rigging. Hundreds fled to neighbouring Kenya.
This time, the CCM party, which has ruled the twin islands of Pemba and Unguja since January 1964, is expected to win easily at national level but might be unseated in Zanzibar.
CUF supporters fear the ruling party will use fraud -- or worse -- to secure their place in Zanzibar, which is the opposition party's power base. It says the electoral register is flawed and says ruling party youths are being trained to intimidate CUF supporters -- charges the ruling party deny.
"All indications are that the ruling party on the island is panicking and is not prepared to lose power," Ahmed Rajab, editor of the UK-based Africa Analysis magazine said.
"Unfortunately, I see bloodshed in Zanzibar." Zanzibar's President Amani Abeid Karume last month threatened to dust off weapons used in the 1964 revolution that brought the CCM to power to ensure his party wins. The statement infuriated opponents but has not been retracted.
"They are already using those weapons," said Ahmed Said Khalid, an opposition supporter, citing a recent clash between police and CUF followers that left five with gunshot wounds.
"They have armed everyone, including firemen and prison guards, with guns."
Already, scores have been injured in street brawls between rival supporters armed with stones, machetes and iron bars in Zanzibar, which lies off the coast of Tanzania.
Pemba and Unguja gained independence from the British in December 1963, only to face a bloody revolt when the African majority wrested power from a mainly Arab government.
The new leader, incumbent Karume's father, joined up with the mainland in 1964. The isles kept their own legislative body and president, which analysts say prevents Tanzania from reining in strong-willed leaders in the archipelago.
The CUF accuses the CCM of rigging both 1995 and 2000 ballots which observers said were conducted fraudulently.
One western diplomat, who did not want to be named, said there was palpable strain between the two CCM branches, with the mainland one insisting on free elections and showing its willingness to work with an opposition government on the isles.
The CUF has promised Ukraine-style street demonstrations if CCM gets into power unfairly. Many on the islands say they are afraid security forces, which have recently been reinforced from the mainland, will clamp down hard on them.
Analysts say politics boils down to age-old racial tensions on the islands, where Arabic and African traditions mingle.
The international community is putting pressure on Tanzania to ensure that the bloodshed of 2001 is not repeated in Zanzibar, which historically traded gold, spices and slaves and is now home to 1 million people.
Tanzanian President Benjamin Mkapa recently said those riots were a blot on his leadership. He steps down after the poll and Foreign Affairs Minister Jakaya Kikwete is expected to win the union presidency overwhelmingly.
"If Mkapa has the will, he can allow a smooth transition through fair elections," political analyst Mohamed Saleh said.
Rajab of Africa Analysis said bloodshed in Zanzibar would tarnish the image of Mkapa, a member of British Prime Minister Tony Blair's Commission for Africa which made recommendations for the continent before July's Group of Eight summit.
He likened the Zanzibar situation to that in Ethiopia after May elections when 36 people were killed by police during protests against ballot fraud. Ethiopia's Prime Minister Meles Zenawi is also a member of the Commission for Africa. "It shows what manner of company Blair keeps in Africa," Rajab said. "(Violence in Zanzibar) will embarrass the likes of Blair."

Copyright Reuters, 2005

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