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Speculators in IMM yen futures grew the net short position to its biggest since May 1999 during the trading week ending October 18, data released on Friday showed.
Speculators extended the net short yen position to 66,641 contracts, from a net short position of 66,035 contracts reported in the previous week.
"If there was some type of a disturbance that made the market change its mind, then dollar/yen could tumble quickly; by three or four big figures in a day or two," said Greg Anderson, senior foreign exchange strategist with ABN Amro bank in Chicago.
On Wednesday, the dollar hit two-year highs around 116 yen.
Being "long" a currency is effectively a bet that it will strengthen while "short" positions bet a currency will weaken.
The data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's Commitments of Traders report on speculative positioning are used by analysts as an indicator of future market direction.
Dealers often look to market positioning data for clues to how currencies might trade in the near future.
For example, extreme net short speculative positions often suggest a rebound in the currency is imminent because dealers might be uneasy about keeping such a large position open.
Similarly, extreme net long positions can suggest a currency has already appreciated a great deal and is poised for a correction lower because dealers are ready to lock in profits.

Copyright Reuters, 2005

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