Loss assessment

While the government, various social welfare organisations and individuals continue making hectic efforts for providing every kind of relief to the people affected by the earthquake of 8th October, there have been wild guesses about the extent of the overall damage and the amount of money needed for rehabilitation of the survivors and reconstruction of the infrastructure.
Hussein Gezairy, the regional director of the World Health Organisation, was probably the first person to say that more than $10 billion would be needed to repair the damage caused by the earthquake.
He had based his estimate on the loss of lives and property which was much higher than that caused by tsunami and recent hurricanes (Katrina and Rita) in the US Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz floated the figure of $5 billion but did not divulge the basis of his estimate.
Talking to BBC, the President seemed to confirm this figure by saying that the world community had so far promised $620 million but Pakistan needed $5 billion to rebuild devastated areas. The amount of foreign aid pledged for reconstruction was, therefore, totally inadequate. The difference between $5 billion and over $10 billion is, of course, huge. Meanwhile, there have been certain other guesstimates ranging between these two figures.
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the World Bank seem to have adopted a more mature approach. They have promised to start an assessment with effect from 24th October 2005 of the needs and reconstruction costs two weeks after the devastating earthquake.
The ADB's assessment would focus on education, transport, water, energy and agriculture while the World Bank will concentrate on livelihood restoration, housing, health, private sector and environment. The World Bank team will conduct economic assessment, risk management and social safeguards, with the ADB assessing the capacity for reconstruction. Peter Fedon, ADB's country director in Pakistan, observed that the tsunami disaster earlier this year had provided a model on which a joint team could be quickly mobilised to make an assessment that will guide the reconstruction and rehabilitation following the earthquake.
World Bank's country director, John Wall said that all the development partners of Pakistan were humbled by the scale of disaster and "we are racing against time to access the damage so we can develop a reconstruction assistance strategy and begin the re-building." Both the ADB and World Bank representatives agreed that efficient co-ordination, according to the strength and experience of the two institutions, was crucial and hoped that the joint team would submit its report by mid-November.
Precise and reliable figures are undoubtedly a pre-requisite for proper planning and execution of projects and understandably the task of rebuilding on the ruins left by the recent earthquake is so huge that it cannot be undertaken without a clear-cut assessment of the whole situation.
While the initiative of loss assessment has been taken by the World Bank and ADB, the Pakistan government is also reported to have formally requested the two institutions to evaluate the actual costs of rehabilitation and reconstruction. We feel that this is a good move. The loss assessment carried out by the multilateral organisations will be more credible and acceptable to the world community and, therefore, the donors will be more inclined to offer assistance.
Also, the World Bank and the ADB are more qualified than the Pakistan authorities to undertake such a job due to their experience and resource-base. Besides, the exercise is likely to be quite thorough and favourable from Pakistan's point of view due mainly to their sympathetic attitude.
It may be mentioned that a day after the 8th October earthquake, the ADB had reallocated $10 million from on-going projects for emergency assistance in the worst affected areas and indicated that it was prepared to significantly increase the amount. The World Bank had also made a similar gesture.
We agree that it is important for the international community to have an accurate estimate of the cost of rebuilding in order to firm up their pledges.
There are, however, a number of difficulties in making such an assessment, including lack of access to certain areas at present, but the job needs to be completed at the earliest and certainly before sympathy of the donors wanes with the passage of time.
The Pakistan government needs to facilitate this exercise in every way and at all costs. Also, it must be remembered that the job of the Pakistan government will not end with rescue and relief operations. Continuous vigorous efforts will be needed for restoring the infrastructure and rebuilding other facilities for the residents of the area and this would cost a lot of money, both in terms of foreign exchange and local currency, for which revisions and reallocations have to be made in overall expenditures of the government and foreign exchange budget of the country.
Hopefully, the exercise promised by the ADB and World Bank will be carried out as early as possible and would be comprehensive enough so as to give a clear idea about the magnitude and the kind of resources needed for the gigantic task lying ahead.