While the US and Europe face off in world trade talks over proposals for cuts in farm tariffs, an unresolved issue from previous negotiations may yet present Washington with another showdown - cotton subsidies.
World Trade Organisation member countries are scrambling to meet a December deadline for agreement on how to slash rich nations' farm subsidies, part of a broader plan to lower trade barriers and try to lift millions out of poverty.
Farm goods are center stage because many poor nations depend on agricultural exports and say they need a deal here first. While the subsidy-reducing formulas being debated would apply to all commodities, some African nations produce mainly cotton and insist rich countries must act on the matter.
Many analysts believe the 2003 WTO ministerial meeting in Cancun collapsed partly because of Washington's rejection of demands from four African nations - Benin, Burkina Faso, Chad and Mali - that the poorest cotton exporters be compensated and a date set to eliminate all cotton subsidies.
If Washington does not alter its stance, the same thing could happen again, they warn.
"The US could again be painted as unresponsive to the needs of some of the lowest income members of global society and giving to famously rich US cotton producers," said Robert Thompson, head of the International Food and Agriculture Trade Policy Council. "It was really poor politics (that) set the stage for the failure of Cancun."
Up to 18 million people are involved in the cotton sector across West Africa, compared to about 500,000 people in the United States, says aid agency Oxfam.
The United States is the world's biggest exporter of cotton. Its cotton producers received about $4.2 billion in federal subsidies during 2004/05 - more than the entire gross domestic product of Burkina Faso.
"Cotton has become symbolic of the double standards in the world trading system. It's a critical trade issue for development of West African countries," said Kimberly Pfeifer, research co-ordinator for Oxfam.
Washington says it will oppose efforts to single out any commodity for special treatment in the WTO talks. In response to the African initiative it suggested that resources should be given to encourage diversification of economies where cotton is the major share of gross domestic product.
"The attitude of virtually everyone else (in Cancun) was that the African producers were much lower cost producers and why shouldn't...the Americans diversify," said Thompson.
As this year's WTO meeting approaches, African countries now have a powerful ally - Brazil.
A rising competitor in the world cotton market, Brazil won a WTO ruling in March that US cotton subsidies unfairly distorted world trade. But Washington has so far only scrapped one of two programs singled out by the WTO for termination.
Brazil has asked the WTO for the right to slap $1 billion in sanctions on US goods and intellectual property like patent rights - seen likely to hit the powerful US movie and pharmaceutical industries.
The country is also applying pressure elsewhere. Sources at an International Cotton Advisory Committee plenary meeting last month said Washington fought to keep any mention of the African cotton initiative out of the group's final statement, but was defeated when Brazil voted with the African countries. A statement was published saying progress on the initiative was imperative for the Hong Kong meeting to succeed.
"Whenever Hollywood or the drug companies are pushed, there is worry," said Mark Ritchie, president of the Institute of Agriculture and Trade Policy. "Brazil's actions are also very helpful for US companies who are lobbying to import cotton to keep down domestic prices. I predict they will be successful."
Under a complex formula, US cotton growers are guaranteed an annual payment based on past output and can get marketing loans that ensure a minimum price of 52 cents per pound.
African nations blame the US subsidies for contributing to low world prices. A UN study said eliminating global cotton subsidies would boost prices by as much as 11 percent, which in turn would expand African exports by at least 9 percent and possibly much more.
Applying pressure on the US from the opposite side is a powerful American cotton lobby, ready to swing into action should it be singled out.
"There's something in the cotton program for everybody. Everyone gets a cut, from those who grow it to those who ship it to those who export it, so they have considerable solidarity," said the IPC's Thompson.
Saxby Chambliss, the Republican chairman of the Senate Agriculture Committee, told the Bush administration that cotton must not be singled out for special treatment. "Agriculture wouldn't stand for it," said one US industry source.
America's biggest farm group says the cotton issue has been hijacked by special interest groups and oversimplified. If US cotton support programs were scrapped, Brazil and Pakistan would pick up the slack in production and farmers in Chad, Mali, Benin and Burkina Faso would be no better off, it says.
"You have to improve production, you have to have a market, business law and contracts before they can actually benefit from what happens in the world market," said Bob Stallman, president of the American Farm Bureau Federation. The African cotton nations are "pawns for bigger agendas," he added.
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