For global shippers, China was a dream come true. The question is how long it can last. Top executives of shippers from A.P. Moeller-Maersk to COSCO Holdings Co Ltd argue China's continued growth - 9 percent over the past nine quarters - will buoy international freight rates.
But others say the three-year boom may be at an end as explosive trade fuels a boom in ship and port expansions that will outpace demand, accelerating a 15 percent slide in container rates over the past month.
"I would say the freight rate has pretty much peaked already, but the question is: is it going to tail off, how severely it is going to tail off, or whether it will be able to maintain its current level."
Industry executives at a shipping summit in Shanghai this week were also asking the same questions.
Global shipping volume is expected to rise by about 10 percent annually in the coming years while shipping capacity is expected to rise 14 to 16 percent, which could limit what shippers can charge.
Shippers such as Neptune Orient Lines warn of increasing competitive pressure.
But Knud Pontoppidan, Maersk's executive vice president, said trade patterns and port congestion would keep some of the new capacity in the pipeline from pressuring rates.
"If you remove those numbers, there will still in 2006 be an even further tightening in capacity," he told Reuters, referring to trade route and congestion calculations.
"Naturally (the shipping industry) is coming from a very, very high level of freight rates. They might reduce a bit but they will still be in the high end, so I don't foresee any dramatic change."
China, now the world's third-largest trading nation, has to import copious amounts of oil, iron ore and metals to keep its factories humming. China's export sector, which supplies the world with toys, clothes and electronic gadgets, accounts for about 40 percent of its gross domestic product.
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