The future of a south Asian free trade deal - considered the best hope of a better living for millions of poor - hinges on a meeting of the region's seven leaders in Dhaka this weekend, analysts and officials say.
The seven countries represented at the South Asian Association for Regional Co-operation (Saarc) summit are home to 1.4 billion people, and 60 percent of the world's poor.
Member nations Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, the Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka last year signed the South Asian Free Trade Agreement (Safta) in Islamabad aimed at creating the world's biggest free trade area from January 2006.
But since then, deadlock over three key issues, namely a sensitive list of products, rules of origin, and a compensation mechanism for the least developed countries whose economies could also be adversely affected by the deal, have cast doubt over the agreement's viability.
Bangladeshi Foreign Minister M. Morshed Khan last week said he doubted whether the landmark treaty would be ready in time for its scheduled implementation as two postponements of the Saarc summit earlier this year had left the negotiations incomplete.
He pledged, however, that Saarc leaders would try to put the agreement back on track this week by coming up with ways to implement it on time.
Experts see the treaty as the only hope of lifting some of the region's millions of poor out of grinding poverty. Poverty alleviation was set out as one of Saarc's key objectives when it was founded two decades ago.
"Saarc as a body has not made any progress regarding poverty alleviation despite the fact that South Asia is home to world's largest number of poor people," said Mohammad Yunus, chairman of Grameen Bank, and pioneer of the microcredit system.
"Economic integration is the best hope for the South Asian people. There is in fact no alternative to it. It is our one and only future," said Yunus, also known as the "banker to the poor".
Mustafizur Rahman, research director of the Dhaka-based independent think tank Centre for Policy Dialogue, said only a clear demonstration of political will could safeguard the deal's future.
"There are uncertainties over whether Safta will be effective from January 2006. There are some problems over rules of origin and the sensitive list, the two most vital parts in a free trade deal," said Rahman, also a visiting professor at Yale University.
"The South Asian leaders should show their leadership abilities by sorting out the problems and making sure Safta is operational from January 1, 2006. The problems faced now can only be solved by political leaders, not by bureaucrats or experts."
Rahman said that only after Safta becomes operational would it be possible for Saarc to emerge as a meaningful regional organisation such as the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean).
"Safta has the potential to expedite cross-border investment in the region, which will spur economic development of all member nations. Safta could make a big dent in poverty.
"If it is implemented Safta could hugely increase trade among the seven nations. Presently the Saarc nations do less than five percent of their trade among themselves. In contrast, Asean nations do 26 percent trade and the European Union 65 percent," he added.
Officials involved in Safta negotiations said Saarc leaders had set June 2005 as the deadline for concluding negotiations on the outstanding issues. But they were unable to wrap up the deal because of continuing differences.
"These issues are vital because if the least developed countries don't get a fair deal from Safta there will be negative impact on their industries, agriculture and employment," said a Bangaldeshi government official, on condition of anonymity.
The negotiations had reached such a state of deadlock, however, that "unless we get a lead from the political leaders the experts cannot take the Safta negotiations forward any further," he said.
"But if the Dhaka Summit resolves the problems, the committee experts can easily wrap the negotiations at its next meeting later this month," he added.
The Safta committee of experts will meet again in Kathmandu from November 27 to December 1 in a last-ditch attempt to save the treaty.
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