Bangladesh has set ambitious growth targets for coming years in an effort to cut poverty that grips nearly half the population, but economists said the country might struggle to meet those goals.
They say economic growth could suffer as the government focuses on efforts to combat Islamic militants and separately opposition political parties vowing to oust Prime Minister Begum Khaleda Zia.
Analysts say Khaleda may still hold on to power until her five-year term ends in October 2006, but the country is likely to see violent or disruptive protests in the meantime.
Bangladesh, one of the world's poorest and most populous countries with 140 million people, achieved 5.5 percent economic growth in the 2004/05 fiscal year.
It wants to boost growth to 6.5 percent in 2005/06 and 7.0 percent in 2006-07, officials said. The fiscal year runs from July to June.
"Seven-percent growth by 2007 will give us a good threshold to fight poverty," Anwarul Kabir Talukdar, state minister of finance and planning, told Reuters on Monday.
"Without the higher growth we can not challenge poverty," he said. "We must put the economy above politics."
But economists said they expected increased political instability ahead of the elections.
Seasonal flooding that sweeps across Bangladesh annually, destroying infrastructure and crops and leaving thousands homeless, would also make it difficult for the government to reach its growth targets, they said.
A World Bank official, who declined to be identified, said the World Bank expected 6 percent growth in 2005-2006, half a percentage point below the government target. He said 7 percent growth the following year was an ambitious target.
"An unstable political environment is not conducive to growth," he said.
Other economists forecast 2005-2006 growth at 5.5 percent.
Wahid Uddin Mahmud, professor of economics at the Dhaka University, said the traditionally moderate Muslim nation faced new political issues that would drag on growth.
"The spread of militancy and terrorism is another new phenomenon that will stand in the way of achieving the GDP target," he said.
"Now, the question is whether Bangladesh will be able to sustain its present (economic) growth rate," Mahmud said.
With elections approaching, a political focus on winning votes would divert energy away from boosting growth.
"With a general election only 14 months away, 2006 will be a year of wait-and-see for the economy, with politicians focusing more on wooing votes," Atiur Rahman, a senior research fellow with Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS), a public-sector think-tank, said.
"This will cast a negative impact on the economy," he said.
The World Bank and other overseas donors have given Bangladesh $1.5 billion annually on average in recent years to help reduce poverty and fund development programmes.
Bangladesh aims to halve the number of its poor by 2015.
At a poverty reduction forum in Dhaka last week, the World Bank said that "Bangladesh loses 1.0 to 2.0 percent of its GDP due to political unrest."
Bangladesh, the world's third most populated Muslim nation after Indonesia and Pakistan, has faced a wave of bombings in recent months by Islamist militants who want to turn the country into an Islamic state based on sharia law.
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