Senior EU policymakers are unclear where they stand on genetically modified (GMO) foods even after years of debate and are looking to a world trade ruling that may dictate where to move next, diplomats say.
While the European Union restarted approvals of GMO products in 2004 after a break of almost six years, the end of the bloc's unofficial biotech ban did not come with the blessing of all its 25 governments - which repeatedly fail to agree on GMO policy.
Since 1998, EU member states have not found enough of a voting majority to agree any new GMO approvals. And since the moratorium ended, the European Commission, the bloc's executive arm, has rubberstamped five new authorisations on their behalf.
The limbo is reflected at the Commission itself, which says it is following EU law by issuing new approvals - but where nobody in the top echelons seems to be driving policy forward. The "leadership vacuum" on GMOs shows few signs of being filled until the World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules on a suit filed against the EU by Argentina, Canada and the United States. Fearing a new trade war, the Commission is keen to show the three complainants that Europe is ready to push GMO applications through the EU system, diplomats say. The WTO is due to issue its ruling, already delayed several times, in early January.
"The WTO outcome will clarify things and inject some reality into the GMO debate, which at the moment is dominated by the idea that the EU can do whatever it likes," one said. "The ruling is the only thing that can bring any kind of political movement."
Europe's shoppers are known for their wariness towards GMO products, often dubbed as "Frankenstein foods", with opposition polled at slightly over 70 percent: a stark contrast with the United States, where they are far more widely accepted.
Six European Commissioners are pivotal for the direction of GMO policy in Brussels, and represent the environment, trade, agriculture, research, industry and food safety portfolios.
Probably the most pro-biotech is Industry Commissioner Guenter Verheugen, who said in a speech in September: "the Commission, public authorities, academia and industry together, should try to present the usefulness of GMOs to the public".
On green biotech, "public attitudes as well as member states' positions hamper the development in this area," he said.
Verheugen may get some backing to push for a firmer line on accelerating GMO approvals from Trade Commissioner Peter Mandelson if the WTO attacks EU biotech policy, officials say.
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