Canada's official report on the 2005 grain harvest, due on Wednesday, is unlikely to have much effect on commodities markets because a big crop has already been factored into prices, traders said.
"Everyone and their dog knows it's going to be an absolute bin-buster," one canola trader said.
Despite summer flooding in Manitoba that left an estimated two million acres fallow, industry source say overall growing conditions through the Prairies were favourable.
Producers increased their oilseed production this year and traders expected canola yields to soar above the 10-year average. "Everyone has seen this crop get bigger and bigger as it gets put in the bin," one trader said.
The report is slated for release on Wednesday at 8:30 am EDT (1230 GMT). Canada is the world's largest canola producer and exporter, and grew a record crop of 8.7 million tonnes in 1999. Industry forecasts, on average, call for 8.9 million tonnes this year.
A Statistics Canada report on October 5 projected a crop of 8.4 million tonnes, but traders and analysts noted the harvest had not been completed during the report's survey period. For its final report, Statesman contacted 31,300 farmers from October 18 to November 18.
"Everybody's expecting good yields on this report so I think the market impact will be minimal," a trader said. For canola, market prices are not expected to be affected by the Statesman report unless the crop comes in below 8.4 million tonnes, industry sources said.
Industry-wide expectations of a large crop have put many buyers on hold waiting for lower prices. "(The report is) going to be a benchmark for what the trade's going to use," one analyst said. While the report is expected to reveal large yield figures for most crops, traders noted quality is known to be poor for many grains.
"We know we have to chew through a lot of feedgrain this year, so ultimately I don't think this report's going to have too much influence on the market," one trader said.
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