Brazil center-south region to crush 354 million tonnes of cane

Brazil's center-south region is expected to crush 354 million tonnes of cane in 2005/06 (May/April), down from the 357 million tonnes estimated in September, private analyst Job Economia said Thursday.
Job Economia's director Julio Maria Borges told Reuters that 3 million tonnes, or almost 1 percent of the crop, would be left until next year due to increased rainfall from November, which has made harvesting difficult.
In 2004/05, the center-south crushed 328 million tonnes, Job said. Last season, cane producers left around 6 million tonnes of the crop uncut until the start of the current crop in April due to atypical rains through the previous harvest.
"We are admitting the possibility of 1 percent of the cane crop remaining in the fields, practically repeating the conditions of the previous crop when 2.5 percent of the cane was left in the field," Borges said.
Private meteorologist Somar predicted rain over the center-south cane region into next week, which will further complicate field work as well as lower the cane's sugar content, making refining more expensive.
On Tuesday, analyst Datagro lowered its estimate of the current crop to 348.5 million tonnes from the 353 million estimated in August partly due to drought in early 2005 and recent rains during the end of the harvest.
The Sao Paulo Cane Agroindustry Union (Unica) also recently lowered its forecast for the center-south to 345 million tonnes of cane from 348.5 million previously.
More than 93 percent of Brazil's main center-south cane crop had been harvested by November 15 and most of the region's mills have closed their doors, according to Unica.
Job said mills were giving greater priority to ethanol production and revised down its forecast for sugar output to 22.9 million tonnes from 24.2 million seen previously. The center-south put out 22.1 million tonnes of sugar last season.
Job maintained its forecast for ethanol output this season at 15.2 billion liters, up from 13.5 billion last season.
Given the above production figures, Borges said the carry-over stocks of sugar and ethanol in the center-south - 15 days and 10 days respectively - would be tight.