Poland's zloty opened the new year little changed against the euro on Monday with London markets and many investors in Warsaw still on holiday, dealers said.
Analysts say an upbeat tone on emerging currencies overall at the start of the year should support the zloty, but they caution Polish markets will be weighed down by fears of looser fiscal policy from the minority government.
"We predict the currency to be somewhat weaker in the first week of the new year," analysts from bank BZ WBWBK wrote in a morning research note to clients. "We predict it will trade between 3.82-3.92 against the euro and 3.19-3.29 per dollar."
Analysts said the market was still mulling the impact of Russia's decision on Sunday to halt gas supplies to Ukraine, which cut Polish supplies by 14 percent and raised the prospect of gas price increases across Europe.
In early trade the currency lost 0.2 percent against the single currency compared to Friday's close, to stand around 1 percent below a 3-1/2 year high reached in mid-December. It was 0.3 percent higher against the dollar.
Government bond markets, where local investors hold around 60 percent, will eye the finance ministry's publication of a final tender value for Wednesday's tender for its new 2-year benchmark bonds. The ministry set the initial value at the tender at 2.0-2.5 billion zlotys. On Monday it will offer 3.2 billion zlotys of 3-, 13- and 52-week treasury bills at a primary tender.
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