Not so soon

Poverty and unemployment have all along been major problems of Pakistan's economy. They are not only endemic but unfortunately have been growing over the years.
At long last and with a certain degree of optimism, the government on 28th February had a different story to tell when the National Economic Council (NEC), meeting under the chairmanship of Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz, claimed that overall poverty in the country had declined by 6.7 percent as compared to 2001.
Akram Shaikh, Deputy Chairman, Planning Commission elaborated that the Federal Bureau of Statistics (FBS) had conducted a countrywide survey that showed that poverty in urban areas had been reduced by 5.5 percent to 17.2 percent while in rural areas it had come down by 7.2 percent to 31.8 percent.
Referring to unemployment, it was claimed that 5.5 million jobs had been created in the public and private sectors over the past two years, reducing joblessness from 7.7 percent in 2003-04 to 6.8 percent. Total employment in the first quarter of 2005-06 was 47.55 million jobs, against 42 million in 2003-04.
There was also a good news about the GDP growth rate. The NEC was informed that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth was expected to range between 6.5 percent and 7.0 percent this year despite the setback to some of the major crops and large-scale manufacturing.
While the cotton setback was basically a reversion from an abnormally high level of production of 14.6 million bales last year to its normal level in the vicinity of 12-13 million bales, the recent rain spell would enhance the production of wheat by one million tons.
In fact, Akram Shaikh claimed that the country was likely to face a "wheat crisis" owing to increased production that would bring down its prices substantially. As a result of robust growth, the estimated per capita income would be above $825 by the end of the current fiscal year.
For all intents and purposes, the reports emanating from government sources about growth, poverty and employment, are very satisfactory at any rate for two reasons. There were strong apprehensions that the growth may not be sustainable in the long run and the poor and unemployed were not benefiting from the growth process witnessed during the last few years.
Looking at the figures made available to the press after the NEC meeting, one would find that such apprehensions were probably not well founded. Growth during 2005-06 is estimated to be near the target of 7.0 percent and, more importantly, the fruits of development seem to have trickled down to the lower strata of society, which was the major objective of the government's economic initiatives.
However, certain points need to be noted before we start celebrating or rejoicing and claiming success in promoting employment and alleviating poverty on such a large-scale within only a few years.
The government has itself recognised that the estimates about unemployment and poverty are based on preliminary analysis of Pakistan Social Living Standards Measurement Survey 2004-05 and calorie intake. Since the coverage of the Survey and its methodology were not revealed, it is very difficult to comment on its accuracy and limitations.
Also, calorie intake is not the only standard measure of determining poverty level. The per capita income in dollar terms of the poor people and certain other indicators are considered more appropriate for the purpose. It was probably against this background that Akram Shaikh had to face a volley of questions from the media over the credibility of data.
On our part, we would be very happy if the figures as revealed in the NEC and to the press by Akram Shaikh are correct, but we would urge the government to double-check the veracity of the data on poverty and employment, preferably by involving some independent well-known economists, so that there is no ambiguity or unnecessary controversy over the accuracy of government statistics.
This, in our view, is very important because the rosy picture as revealed by the government sources does not seem to exactly conform to the realities on the ground. There would be no sense in propagating a set of data that is really not credible.