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In a region where Fiji continues to suffer post-coup political tremors and Tonga's semi-feudal monarchy is nudged towards democracy, Samoa stands out as a beacon of stability in the island states of the South Pacific.
When the country of 175,000 goes to the polls on March 31, most observers are betting on another victory for the ruling Human Rights Protection Party (HRPP), which has dominated the political scene for more than two decades.
Prime Minister Tuila'epa Aiono Sailele Malielegaoi, who has led the country since late 1988, has no doubts his party will again dominate the 49-seat parliament.
"If we were to go to an election tomorrow we should have no problem getting 35 seats, over a two-thirds majority," Tuila'epa told AFP in an interview.
On the plus side, the government can point to a relatively healthy economy and improved infrastructure. But critics also point to perceived arrogance in government ranks, coupled with a high cost of living following years of high inflation and low wages.
Independent newspaper, The Samoa Observer, has conducted polls which show greater support for the opposition Samoa Democratic United Party, led by Le Mamea Ropati. But Observer news editor Keni Ramese Lesa says in the end the hold of the HRPP over many village leaders should ensure victory for Tuila'epa, perhaps with a smaller majority.
The HRPP currently holds 34 of the 49 seats in the parliament which represents a population spread over two large volcanic islands, lying about 2,500 km (1,560 miles) north-west of former colonial master New Zealand.
Even his critics give Tuila'epa -- a former finance minister -- credit as a reformer, corporatising government businesses and bringing public spending under control. But the growing pains of a country in transition from subsistence village-based life to a cash economy are apparent.
The high cost of living, coupled with low wages is a frequent grumble. The minimum wage is 1.80 tala (65 US cents) an hour, while a can of tinned meat is eight tala and a string of small fish costs around 30 tala.
One success the government can point to is growth in the economy. The economy grew 6.0 percent in the year to September 2005.
Inflation was 4.3 percent in the same period, more than seven percentage points lower than a year earlier.
But the fragility of the economy is apparent in other statistics. In the third quarter of last year, exports totalled just 8.1 million tala, while imports came to 148.6 million tala.
Remittances from Samoans living abroad remain crucial to the economy. At 55.2 million tala in the third quarter, up 24.1 percent from a year earlier, they were equivalent to a fifth of the total economy.
Tourism has been growing and was worth 62.8 million tala in the quarter, up 9.3 million tala from a year earlier.
The arrival of cut price airfares from Australia and New Zealand sets the scene for more visitors.
"We have already seen the benefits coming through with lower fares and more tourists," Tuila'epa said. "We have been advised we will need another 200 to 400 rooms in the next five years and that's a very good sign."
But about 60 percent of the population still relies on agriculture, a sector which is declining relative to the overall economy. Tuila'epa wants to make it easier for agriculture-based industries to lease village land, which still makes up about 80 percent of the total.
A new opponent in the election will be former auditor general Su'a Rimone Ah Chong, who is hoping to field up to 30 candidates from his recently formed Samoa Party in the election.
He accuses the government of ignoring the majority of Samoans who still live in villages.
"When you analyse (the economic growth), its about buildings and things like that," he said.
Su'a and Tuila'epa are long-time adversaries. The auditor general was suspended in 1995 over a report he presented alleging financial irregularities involving over half the cabinet. Amid a legal battle, he was finally dismissed in 1997 and his formerly independent role brought under government control.
Su'a says good governance and transparency are still given little more than lip service by the government.
"I think certain things need to be sorted out so we have proper government and achieve real gains in good governance. We hear the rhetoric but we need action rather than words to protect our democracy rather than wreck it," he said.
It is a charge which Tuila'epa flatly rejects.
"Good governance is here and is being practised by this government. But to him there is no good governance. And transparency, that is why we tender things out, that is why we produce audit reports," he said.
Although, he is confident his party will be back in the government offices after March 31, Tuilaepa says it is up to his colleagues whether he will lead for a third term.
"I'm available," he said with a laugh.

Copyright Agence France-Presse, 2006

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