Tokyo gold futures dropped more than 1 percent on Tuesday as falls in oil prices and the dollar-denominated bullion price prompted Japanese investors to lock in profits, though the long-term trend remains bullish.
Active selling pushed down Tokyo Commodity Exchange gold futures across the board, sending the key most distant February 2007 contract as low as 2,125 yen per gram, but bargain hunting supported TOCOM gold.
February TOCOM gold closed at 2,134 yen, down 30 yen or 1.39 percent from Monday's settlement of 2,164. "The near-term trend is not clear, but falls in oil prices depressed the market. The dollar's recovery also undermined spot gold, resulting to weigh on Tokyo prices," said Hiroyuki Kikukawa, associate director at Nihon Unicom Corp.
"I still believe the long-term trend is bullish but for now there are many uncertainties and the precious metals market lacks factors of its own." The key contract was below its 30-day moving average (MA) of 2,144 yen by the close, while it held above the 7-day MA of 2,131 yen and the 14-day MA of 2,121 yen.
Other gold contracts closed down by 22 to 31 yen. Spot gold was trading at $555.25/556.00 an ounce, down from $555.60/556.50 late in New York, where it had fallen about 1.7 percent the previous day.
Weaker oil prices and a firmer dollar capped gold on Monday.
Gold hit a 25-year high of $574.60 in February, which many analysts see as the next major resistance level, although $560 could be tough to break. US crude futures fell below $62 per barrel on Monday as investors took profits from strong gains last week, and on expectations Opec would keep production unchanged when it meets later this week.
Tokyo metal traders said they were reluctant to hold onto large positions ahead of the Bank of Japan's two-day monetary policy meeting that begins on Wednesday, which the central bank could end its ultra-easy monetary policy.
Market analysts remained uncertain about whether the BOJ would keep or change its five-year-old monetary policy at a board meeting this week.
Although Japanese short-term interest rates were expected to stay near zero even if the central bank does decide to end its current policy, investors wanted to keep their positions light as they were unsure how currencies and interest rates would behave after the BOJ meeting.
"Hedge funds and short-term players could take some money out of risk assets, including commodities, as it is becoming difficult to get a general picture of interest rates in Japan and elsewhere around the world," Kikukawa said.
Kikukawa said the market had already seen in recent week's hedge funds unwinding yen carry trades - in which funds borrow in a low yielding currency like the yen to invest in assets of higher yielding currencies or places like commodities markets.
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