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Cotton futures settled quietly mixed Wednesday as the market caught its breath after getting pounded by commodity fund sales the past few sessions, dealers said. Most players said the release of a pair of reports from the US Department of Agriculture tomorrow and Friday may keep dealings quiet for the meantime.
"It's straightforward - trade buying against spec selling," said Sharon Johnson, cotton expert for First Capitol Group in Atlanta, Georgia.
She added the recent sharp falls in cotton may force the market to "take a pause" and the USDA data would encourage some to retreat to the sidelines for now.
The New York Board of Trade's May cotton contract rose 0.11 cent to conclude at 53.86 cents a lb, dealing from 53.79 to 54.25 cents. July gained 0.10 to 55.16 cents. Three contracts aside, the rest were flat.
Analysts said speculative accounts sold into the market's rise, which was fuelled mainly by trade and possibly consumer buying. "There's just a bunch of trade buying underneath this thing and that's keeping a lid on the specs," one said.
They said USDA's weekly export sales report on Thursday should show total US cotton sales ranging from 200,000 to 300,000 running bales (RBs, 500-lbs each), versus last week's 241,600 RBs.
They said US cotton shipments of previously booked orders should range from 400,000 to 500,000 RBs, from 452,900 RBs in last week's data.
The analysts expect only minor changes in USDA's monthly supply/demand report due to be handed out Friday.
"The only suspense I know is going to be world consumption, and specifically Chinese consumption," said Mike Stevens, an analyst for SFS Futures in Mandeville, Louisiana.
In February, USDA pegged world cotton consumption in 2005/06 at 116.79 million (480-lb) bales, from the January estimate of 115.24 million. Chinese cotton use rose to 45 million bales from 43 million.
Brokers Flanagan Trading Corp sees resistance in the May cotton contract at 54.10 and 54.70 cents, with support at 53.80 and 53.30 cents.
Floor dealers said final trading volume was estimated at 12,000 lots, off from Tuesday's count of 15,175 lots. Open interest fell 404 lots to 123,559 contracts as of March 7.

Copyright Reuters, 2006

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