The recent visits by leaders of Saudi Arabia and UAE to Pakistan and the signing of various agreements are indicative of the growing Gulf-South Asia connection. Both countries are members of the six-nation Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) and view South Asian scene with acute interest.
This is mainly due to Pakistan's and India's preponderance in terms of size and population as well as the subcontinent's geographical contiguity with the Gulf region, especially Pakistan.
From the perspective of the GCC, South Asia presents vast and untapped potential in terms of human and non--human resources. Although linkage between the two regions goes back to history, it has grown fast in the 1970s. Besides common religious bonds common British heritage also brings the two regions closer to each other.
How does the six-nation Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC), especially the UAE, view the unfolding South Asian political scene?
Both Pakistan and India are endowed with large populations. Nearly 400 million in India and 30-40 million in Pakistan now belong to the middle class with substantial purchasing power.
Moreover as raw-producing, semi-industrialised countries, they have surplus human material and sizeable technical managerial skills, besides they have great absorptive capacity for foreign investment and joint ventures.
In South Asia, the vast industrial labour pool makes economies of scale possible and feasible. The technical pool is better than many developing countries.
However, South Asia's main drawback is that it is deficient in capital, infrastructure and energy resources, on the latter, it will be increasingly dependent upon gas and oil imports from outside, especially on the GCC countries.
Building of gas pipelines from Qatar and Iran are some of the available options, though presently obstructed by US hard-line policies.
The UAE will immensely benefit from possible maturation of the ongoing peace process in South Asia. First, peaceful conditions in the subcontinent could enable the GCC countries to invest more confidently in Pakistan as the latter provides a promising and cheap market.
Secondly, it helps the UAE and other GCC member States to avoid the dilemma of taking sides which may annoy India or Pakistan. Thirdly, both UAE and other GCC members are geographically proximate to South Asia, especially Pakistan, thus making the movement of goods, people and trade convenient.
Continued tensions in South Asia could scare away precious investment. Nuclear weapons act as a double-edged sword: as a factor of strategic stability and restraint, if wisely handled. Conversely strategic instability could lead to military adventurism.
If Indo-Pakistan tensions are not wisely managed and nuclear risk reduction measures not followed, fears of a major war with nuclear weapons could result - inflicting widespread destruction and environmental contamination in and the adjoining region. This pollution could easily spread to the Gulf region.
The Arabian Sea could also become an arena of power tussle. Any naval buildup in the southern quadrant of the Indian Ocean and Gulf region could severely affect the free movement of oil, trade and cargo through the Gulf.
The recent US-Iran tensions are worrisome for Pakistan, the UAE and other GCC members. Should US take any military action against Iran, it will have adverse political fallout for all regional countries, including Pakistan and the GCC. It is surprising that GCC, despite economic clout, played a minimal role in defusing the impending US-Iran conflict.
The small GCC countries share borders with big neighbours like Saudi Arabia. They feel the necessity of stationing of US-British troops on their territories in their national interest. For them, including the affluent desert economies like the UAE, Qatar and Bahrain, the presence of troops in the region is a sine qua non for survival.
Hence they desire a phased withdrawal from Iraq as a more preferable option than any precipitate one; in addition, the peace process currently underway in South Asia are seen as wholesome development insofar they provide 'strategic relief' in a peaceful South Asian hinterland.
In international fora like the OIC, many Gulf countries sometimes faced an excruciating dilemma, after all, India has a large Muslim population and a sizeable work force stationed in these countries. On issues like Kashmir, it sometimes became politically embarrassing to take sides.
While Islamic bonds are vital in the Pakistan-GCC relations the same are applicable to India. Therefore, any Indo-Pakistan rapprochement tends to simplify these contradictions and enables the GCC to have the best of relations with both.
Should tensions fester in South Asia and continue to escalate, South Asian guest workers in GCC countries and UAE could be susceptible to national disputes. Although for now most of these workers live amicably, any exacerbation in Indo-Pakistan tensions could ipso facto raise tensions and upset the domestic harmony and consequent economic growth in their economies.
For example, during the 1992 Ayodhya Hindu-Muslim riots and the 2001-2002 India-Pakistan military stand-off, strains surfaced between the nationals of these countries. In the interest of internal harmony early return of peace between India-Pakistan is desired as majority of expatriate labour is drawn from India, Pakistan and Bangladesh.
In view of the ongoing peace process the GCC desires firstly, to boost trade, investment businesses, and joint ventures with South Asia. India has made major strides in bio-technology, IT and technical/managerial skills. Pakistan is also following suit.
Both consider the GCC members as potential suppliers of energy for their energy-starved industries. Besides, by providing technology and skilled management, both India and Pakistan could help in the 'emiritisation' of the UAE: in empowering the locals in setting up small-and-medium enterprises (SMEs).
Sino-Pakistan co-operation in the construction of Gwadar mega port, coastal highway adjacent to the Gulf, tapping of gold and copper in Saindak mines, exploitation of Tharparkar coal and development of others infrastructures - are all positive indicators that could attract further investment and businesses into the hinterland of Balochistan and Sindh.
Possibly, Iran-UAE pipeline system could be worked out if the Iran-Pakistan-India pipeline plan does not fructify.
By bringing China into the picture regional economic grid, co-operation could be given a fillip. China, as a peaceful rising power, has always counted on Pakistan as a connecting links with the Gulf and the larger Middle East. It is in this context that the recent visit of the Saudi monarch to Asian countries of China, India and Pakistan should be viewed.
Unlike the West, the GCC countries do not see the Chinese modernisation as posing any threat. Rather, they think that it could help them in improving their leverage and hence reduce dependence upon the US and the West.
As experience has shown, the Chinese labour and expertise is more disciplined, cheaper and attuned to Third World conditions than the West. The reservations of populist and socialist backlash are fading away.
For its development of north-western Xinjiang province China needs to enhance energy co-operation, trade and investment with the Gulf region. In their assessment, this might blunt some 'separatist' and 'splittist' tendencies in their north-west and link the region into a web of development.
Manpower export is still an exportable asset of Pakistan and India. Technical manpower finds many opportunities in the UAE - thus reducing employment pressures in overpopulated South Asia.
For the GCC, Pakistani workers by and large have lower expectations, meld easily into the cultural fabric and are located not far from their homeland. No wonder, the credit of infrastructure development in the GCC goes to expatriate workers of Pakistanis and Indians, and now it is shared by Sri Lankans, Nepalese and Bangladeshis.
Also, great scope exists for educational interaction, tourism, peaceful use of nuclear energy (medicine, agriculture, engineering, mining etc) between South Asia and the GCC.
South Asia needs to learn from the developmental experience of UAE on how best to prudently utilise assets. The UAE and GCC states, as near-neighbours and friends remained genuinely concerned about the 2001- 2002 India-Pak military stand-off; then, there was genuine concern raised by the UAE and some others for an amicable resolution of crisis.
This was due to existing friendly relations, presence of expatriate community and economic stakes in both India and Pakistan.
In a globalised world, the hallmark of effective foreign policy is in fruitful engagement with many countries. The GCC leadership has been able to convert small populations and geographical sizes into assets. Also, judicious husbanding of resources and pragmatic reliance on foreign workers has resulted in a social welfare state, evoking admiration from many Islamic and Third World countries. In sum, peaceful South Asia is as much in the interest of GCC, as is a stable Gulf region for South Asia.
Comments
Comments are closed.