According to latest cotton statistics released by the Pakistan Cotton Ginners' Association (PCGA) as up to March 15, total cotton arrivals are equivalent to 12,342,819 local weight bales while unsold stocks with ginners is 1,452,472 bales.
The story of production estimates has now ended around 12.4 million local weight bales. Next cotton crop sowing intentions indicate up to 5 percent increase in acreage while better seed, proper use of fertiliser and conducive weather conditions are likely to improve cotton productivity to place next crop estimates at 14.3 million local bales.
The federal textile industry minister said the government had allowed sowing of Bt. Cotton varieties to boost cotton productivity. As a matter of fact, cotton growers specially in Sindh have been sowing Bt. Cotton varieties for the last three years and Bt. Cottonseed has also been introduced in Punjab but the Bt. Cottonseed is not virgin, but reproduced seed is generally smuggled from India where it is widely used.
Unless, we produce our own seed suiting to local conditions, we cannot perform well in cotton production. So far, Pakistan has not reportedly produced any Bt. Cottonseed for commercial cultivation. India is increasing acreage under Bt. Cottonseed varieties which is was on over 2 million hectares.
Bt. Cottonseed is sown widely in China, USA, Brazil, Argentina and India. This season, bollworm attached cotton crop in India and damaged cotton crop. The result was that in non-Bt.
Cotton area the damage was 20-25 percent while in Bt. Cotton area it was less than 10 percent. India has also upgraded its ginning efficiency resulting improvement in overall quality of lint cotton.
This season, India is exporting some 2.6 million local bales while Pakistan would import some 1.7 million 480-lb bales this season. Indian efforts for up-gradation of cotton has shown good results in productivity, production and quality.
The world has very much liked Indian variety Shanker-6 which has 70 percent share in total exports. It is also very popular in Pakistan. Unless, we re-organize our agriculture and all concerned departments/institutions to meet the challenge, we cannot achieve our targets in agriculture.
The local cotton market remained weak during the last week ostensibly on the floating of TCP cotton sale tender under which the Trading Corporation of Pakistan (TCP) sold 50,200 bales on last Friday at Rs 2,309 per maund Grade-III staple 1-1/32 and at 2,220 for Grade-IV staple 1-1/32ex-gin to local spinners, while in export at US cents 47.27/lb for Grade-III staple 1-1/32 and at US cents 45.56/lb FOB Karachi.
After this sale of 50,200 bales, the TCP has an unsold stock of some 250,000 bales for which hopefully, the TCP would float another sale tender this week. The ginners holding unsold stocks are feeling the pinch of TCP sales as the good quality lint cotton is now selling around Rs 2,400 instead of 2,600 three weeks ago.
The yarn market is not picking up and liquidity position in very tight and New York prices are seen fluctuating between narrow margin of 54 and 57 in next four/five weeks. As such, the local market may also remain under pressure and shed another Rs 100 or so in coming weeks as unsold stock with the ginners are at 1.435 million local bales.
In the first fortnight of this month, local spinners lifted some 250,000 bales. New crop sowing would start in April in early sowing areas and talk of new crop would floating in the market. This situation would cast bearish effect on the cotton market. As such, the TCP may not get good bids in the next tenders.
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