Tokyo shares seen rising but cautious over Tankan

Japanese share prices are expected to rise moderately next week on upbeat expectations over corporate earnings and the start of a new fiscal year, analysts said Friday.
But the market may face profit-taking triggered by the release Monday of the Bank of Japan's Tankan quarterly survey of business sentiment which is expected to show moderate improvement, they added.
For the week ending March 31, the Tokyo Stock Exchange's benchmark Nikkei-225 index rose 498.79 points or 3.01 percent to 17,059.66, the highest closing level since August 2000.
The broader TOPIX index of all first-section shares gained 38.82 points or 2.30 percent over the week to 1,728.16.
"Japanese stocks will see a moderate rise on the expectations on coming earning results," said Masatoshi Yano, senior strategist at Mizuho Investors Securities.
"The Tankan, which is expected to show little change, won't disappoint the market much but there is a risk of profit-taking as the share prices rose so rapidly this week," he said.
The Tankan's headline index among large manufacturers is forecast to inch up to 23 in the March survey, from 21 in December, with estimates ranging from 21 to 24.
That will be the highest level for the index since it hit 26 in September 2004.
But Yano said that the recent rise in stocks has been driven by views that the overall economy is expanding, even though recent headline indicators have come in below expectations.
The market has taken the view that the data was down simply because of strong showings between October and December.
"The share prices next week will be in the 16,700-17,300 points range considering the risk of the Tankan," Yano said.
Ryuta Otsuka, strategist at Toyo Securities, said that the Tankan would not be able to push share prices any higher as the market has already factored it in.
"Rather than the Tankan, investors are looking more at the coming earning results as well as the start of the new fiscal year" which begins Saturday, he said.
Otsuka forecast that the Nikkei-225 index will stay in the higher ranges of 17,000 points unless there is a plunge on US stock markets.