The head of Germany's Federal Labour Office was quoted on Saturday saying he did not believe the headline unemployment level would rise above the politically sensitive five million mark again next winter.
"I don't expect that but I also can't rule it out," Labour Office chief Frank-Juergen Weise was quoted in Wirtschaftswoche magazine ahead of its Monday publication.
The level had been above that five million figure in both the last two winters and had contributed to the demise of ex Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder's government in early 2005.
Weise added the number of those who had lost their jobs within the last year was been lowered by half a million since May 2005 - a sign of optimism for those more likely to have skills - while the number of long-term jobless was up. "The number of those who were out of work for up to one year has been cut by half a million since May 2005," he said.
"This labour market is largely under control. The number of long-term unemployed, however, has risen. The overall average for this year will probably be between 4.6 and 4.7 million unemployed - a bit lower than first forecast."
Weise said it was difficult to forecast the labour market because many firms are holding back hiring permanent full-time workers until they see how what impact the higher value-added tax in 2007 and energy price increases impact the economy.
Unemployment figures for May are due on Wednesday. German unemployment fell more than expected in April. The headline unadjusted total fell some 187,000 to 4.79 million for a rate of 11.5 percent.
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