Ukraine's 2006/07 grain exports are likely to sink to 9.89 million tonnes from 12.3 million in 2005/06 because of a smaller harvest in 2006, leading UkrAgroConsult consultancy said on Monday.
The counsultancy said exports could include 2.5 million tonnes of wheat, 4.4 million of barley, 2.7 million of maize and 190,000 tonnes of peas.
"We presume the wheat exports will be about 2.5 million tonnes. Other sources put estimates of the wheat exports from 1.0 to 2.0 million tonnes," UkrAgroConsult said in a statement.
"The growth of the world wheat prices will stimulate wheat export from Ukraine and Russia despite the harvest drop and price increase."
UkrAgroConsult said Ukraine's wheat exports in 2006/07 (July-June) might be similar to the 2002/03 season - unseasonably high in the first part of the season and a drop in sales in the second half.
The consultancy also said an increase in feed grain output might partially offset smaller wheat sales.
"Barley exports of about 4.4 million tonnes will be stimulated by high supply and considerable reduction of domestic prices," UkrAgroConsult said.
"Record high maize production also allows us to put our maize export estimates at 2.7 million tonnes in 2006/07 though maize will replace feed wheat for feeding animals." UkrAgroConsult last week revised up Ukraine's 2006 grain crop forecast by about 7 percent to 34.3-34.5 million tonnes from the previous estimate of 32.1 million due to favourable weather in April and May.
It said the country was likely to harvest up to 12.6 million tonnes of wheat and 11.2 million of barley this year.
Ukraine harvested 38 million tonnes of grain, including 18.7 million of wheat and 8.9 million of barley in 2005.
Earlier this month, the agriculture ministry revised down its 2006 grain crop forecast to 37-38 million tonnes from its previous estimate of 38-40 million. It said the wheat crop was likely to total about 13-14 million tonnes.
Another consultancy, APK-Inform, has said the crop is likely to total 32.7 million tonnes in 2006, including 11.9 million of wheat, 10.5 million of barley and 7.0 million of maize.
APK-Inform said a smaller harvest could depress grain exports to 8.6 million tonnes in the 2006/07 season (July-June) from 12.6 million forecast for the current season.
The agriculture ministry sees exports at about 8.5 million tonnes in 2006/07.
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