Technologi-cal gains in the next 14 years will deliver the greatest benefits not to countries currently lagging, but to those already on technology's cutting edge, a study released May 30 found.
"Where people live will have a big impact on how technology applications affect their personal health and standard of living, and will also play a part in determining the ability of their countries to protect them and their environment," said Richard Silberglitt, one of the lead authors of the RAND Corporation study.
Looking at 29 countries RAND ranked as technologically advanced, proficient, developing or lagging, the study found that by 2020 "people in the United States and Canada, Germany (representing western Europe), South Korea and Japan, Australia and Israel will benefit the most from advances in technology, and they will be able to exploit technology regardless of its sophistication."
As examples of potential high-tech advances, it cited growing tissue to implant and replace human body parts; creating pervasive sensor networks in public areas to conduct real-time surveillance; providing access to information any time and anywhere; and creating wearable computers.
Among scientifically proficient countries "China, India, Russia and others ... such as Poland (representing Eastern Europe) could also make significant advances, along with simpler ones," the report said.
They could, for example, "provide their people with drug therapies that preferentially attack specific tumours or pathogens (and) vastly improved medical diagnostic and surgical procedures."
Scientifically developing countries "Mexico, Turkey, Brazil, Colombia, Indonesia, South Africa and Chile are poised to take advantage of modestly sophisticated technology applications including devices to constantly track the movement of everything from products to people; easy-to-use health diagnostic tests that give immediate results for a large range of infections; and environmentally friendly manufacturing methods," the study also found.
The scientifically lagging countries - Fiji, the Dominican Republic, Georgia, Nepal, Pakistan, Egypt, Iran, Jordan, Kenya, Cameroon and Chad - "are burdened by problem-plagued political systems, a lack or resources or infrastructure, and class disparities," the study said.
"When such countries have the will to make changes ... they can improve the lives of their citizens," the study added, citing examples such as cheap solar energy for remote or portable applications, ways to purify water that won't require major infrastructure, and rural wireless communications.
China and India lead the group of scientifically proficient, the study added.
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