A quarterly grain stocks report due out this week from the US Department of Agriculture is likely to confirm huge supplies of US soybeans, grain analysts said. The trade also expects the USDA to report an increase in US corn stocks from year-earlier levels and a marginal increase in wheat stocks.
The USDA is scheduled to release its US June 1 grain stocks report along with its June acreage report on Friday. The consensus estimate for June 1 soybean stocks among analysts polled by Reuters was 1.016 billion bushels - roughly one-third of annual US soybean production, with one more quarter to go before the marketing year ends on August 31. A year ago, soy stocks stood at 699 million bushels.
"This quarterly stocks number in beans is just massive. At this time of year to have a third of normal production on hand is burdensome," Allendale Inc analyst Bill Biedermann said. "We've had good-sized crops, but our export business has been absolutely putrid," he said.
Some analysts said the soybean futures market has already factored the bearish stocks situation into prices. The USDA on June 9 projected US soybean ending stocks for 2005/06 at 570 million bushels. "We're already looking for a record high carryover. So the news that old-crop soybean stocks are in ample supply is not going to be too surprising for the market," said Anne Frick, oilseeds analyst with Prudential Financial.
Comments
Comments are closed.