Soybean futures at the Chicago Board of Trade ended firm on Monday after a volatile session, with prices seeing a 12-cent range amid differing views of US Midwest crop forecasts, traders said. "Everybody seems focused not so much on the near-term but whether the high-pressure ridge will return afterward," said one CBOT floor broker.
"It's certainly lending support on the breaks," he added. July soy closed 1 cent up at $6.03 per bushel, and new-crop November ended 2 higher at $6.29-3/4, reaching a high of $6.35-1/2 and low of $6.23-1/2.
Most the day's action was in corn vs. soybeans as corn is in the midst of pollination, the critical yield determining phase of production, and more prone to weather changes. Commodity funds bought about 9,000 corn futures and only 1,000 soybean contracts, traders said.
Soybeans even turned lower about midday when updated forecasts looked a little wetter, traders said. The western Corn Belt should see highs in the 80s and 90s degrees Fahrenheit throughout the week, with hardly any rain - 0.25 to 0.75 inch was expected Monday into Tuesday, with 30 to 40 percent coverage of the western Corn Belt, said Meteorlogix's Joel Burgio early Monday.
"This is certainly a much more stressful situation for the western Midwest," he said, adding the western Midwest was expected to have less rain than forecast last week.
After the markets closed, USDA reported that 58 percent of the US soybean crop was in good to excellent condition, down from 64 percent the previous week. Traders had only expected a 1-to-3 point decline. That could lend support to overnight e-cbot trade.
The products closed firm following soybeans. July soymeal was up 50 cents per ton at $173.40. The deferreds were mostly higher - up 70 cents to down 20 cents.
July soyoil closed 0.20 cent higher at 27.30 cents per lb, with the backs up 0.15 to 0.31. The July crush ended 2.3 cent up 78.78 cents/bushel.
Soyoil was choppy as the market was technically overbought, after making contract highs on Friday, and was due for a correction. Funds bought 2,000 soyoil contracts and were even to net sellers of 1,500 soymeal futures, traders said.
Midwest spot basis bids for soybeans were mostly steady late Monday, with scattered sales after the early CBOT rally. Sales were expected to pick up if November hits $6.40, surpassing May high of $6.39, traders said.
Export inspections were disappointing. USDA said Monday that 5.2 million bushels of soybeans were inspected for export last week vs. estimates for 6 million to 11 million. Top global soy buyer, China, was absent from the destination list. In the export market, Taiwan on Tuesday is to open a tender to buy 30,000 to 60,000 tonnes of US or Brazilian soybeans.
Positioning was expected this week before USDA issues its July crop reports on Wednesday. Traders and analysts expect USDA to cut its US 2006/07 end stocks estimate to roughly 586 million bushels from its June estimate of 655 million.
In delivery market, there were 976 CBOT July soybean deliveries. There were no soymeal deliveries and light July soyoil deliveries of 52 lots.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission late Friday reported that large speculators cut their net short position in CBOT soybeans and soymeal for the week ended July 3, while expanding their net long position in soyoil to 4-to-1 ratio in futures only.
Comments
Comments are closed.