SovEcon's latest forecast for Russia's total 2006 wheat output remains virtually unchanged in a range of 39.5-41.5 million tonnes, compared with 47.7 million in 2005.
The forecast is lower than a recent estimate by Rosgidromet, the Russian Committee for Weather Monitoring, which said the crop would be 42.25-47.0 million tonnes. SovEcon's estimate for Russia's wheat area is pegged at 22.25-22.7 million hectares from 25.4 million hectares last year. This reflects a decline in the winter wheat area due to unusually large winterkill losses in the Black Earth and Volga areas.
In addition, there was a decline in winter wheat plantings in the North Caucasus because of dry weather last autumn. Total winter wheat harvesting area is estimated at 8.2-8.4 million hectares, compared with 10.36 million hectares last year.
Russia's spring wheat area is estimated at 14.0-14.4 million hectares, against 15.04 million hectares last year. Despite generally good weather conditions for winter wheat development in European Russia, initial yields are 5-8 percent down from last year.Reduced yields reflect poor weather conditions last autumn, which lowered yield potential.
Spring wheat plantings in European Russia are generally in good condition thanks to abundant rain in June. But unusually hot weather in the first half of July in Central Russia and the Volga River areas may strain the crop. In Siberia, prolonged dry weather in May and June hurt crop development in Alta. and Novosibirsk.
Heavy rains in the first half of July are delaying the crop development. Coupled with late sowing, this may result in delays in harvesting. SovEcon's production forecasts for Central and Southern Districts and the URLs are now seen marginally up.
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