Dangerous miscalculations

If it was an apparent miscalculation on Hezbollah's part when it abducted two Israeli soldiers - as it had done on some previous occasions without provoking a major attack from Israel - the Zionist state may also have acted on a miscalculation when it launched a brutal air campaign against Lebanon on July 12, and went on to escalate violence.
Now the US and some pro-US Arab governments seem to be going down the same path. While unabated Israel aggression has killed nearly 350 Lebanese people and made another half a million to run for their lives, the US is openly encouraging Israel to continue to rain death on the Lebanese people and destruction on the Arab country's fragile infrastructure.
Ignoring pleas from the UN, EU as well as the Arab world, US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said at a news conference on Friday that an immediate cease-fire would produce a 'false promise' that would allow Hezbollah to remerge in the future to attack Israel. There is a confluence of opinion among the US, Israel, and some pro-US Arab governments, on that Hezbollah must be crushed.
In what is being presented as a division in Arab opinion, some 'Ulema' have come out in support of the Saudi government position that Hezbollah - a Shiite outfit supported by its rival, Iran - is a terrorist group, and therefore, Muslims should not back its actions. The US already having declared both Hezbollah and Hamas in the Palestinian territories as terrorist groups, so far as the opinion in the Arab street is concerned, those who gave that decree and those who sought it stand on the same side as the 'enemy'.
For, if ordinary Arabs - Christians as well as Sunnis, and Shias, - are united on any single issue, it is on ending Israeli policy of aggression and occupation.
Anyone standing up to Israel is a hero. That sentiment is common in the larger part of the Muslim world as well. In fact, Iran is gaining increasing influence in the Middle East mainly because of its resolute support for the Palestinian cause. It backs the Sunni-led Hamas just as strongly as it does the Shiite Hezbollah. Hence, in case the US and its allies in the Mideast think they can play the sectarian card to deflect popular support from Hezbollah, that would be a miscalculation.
In the first few days of its air strikes against Lebanon, Israel had focussed on Shiite strongholds only, sparing the Sunnis and others, apparently, in the hope of re-igniting sectarian as well as Muslim-Christian tensions in that country with a view to isolating Hezbollah. But then it went on to launch a series of attacks on the Lebanese Army, killing 11 officers and men in a bid to force the government to send its army to the Lebanese-Israeli border to replace Hezbollah and to disarm its fighters.
That has backfired, angering a wide spectrum of Lebanese opinion and creating unity with the defence minister declaring, "the Lebanese Army will resist and defend the country and prove that it is an army worthy of respect."
Meanwhile, egged on by the pro-Zionist neo-con clique surrounding US President George W. Bush, Israel is now toying with the idea of launching a ground offensive against Lebanon. If indeed it goes ahead with the threat that might prove to be yet another perilous miscalculation. Unlike the defenceless Palestinians, Hezbollah has sufficient resources and prowess to counter any Israeli offensive.
It wears the badge of honour of forcing Israeli withdrawal from South Lebanon in 2000, and since the air strikes began it has fired 1000 or so long-range rockets deep into Israeli territory, killing several Israelis. During the recent days, it also hit a warship, and killed two soldiers of an elite Israeli force when they launched an incursion into Lebanese territory. Equally important, Iraq and other countries of the region have all manner of free-lance fighters who are looking for an opportunity to hit the US and its protégé and redeem Arab dignity. Then, of course, there is Iran to provide them with the money and material help. Going by Washington's assertions the conflict is to escalate further. It is likely to plunge the region into more chaos and bloodshed, at the end of which Hezbollah may still emerge standing. That would be good enough for it to declare victory.