The prospect of a slowing US economy may not sit too well with Asia's exporters, but latest data from the region suggests they are in a stronger position to weather any cooling in demand from the world's largest economy.
Healthy demand for commodities and electronics products as well as a weakening in some currencies, such as the Taiwan dollar, have bolstered exports, which have picked up after a slowdown in the first half of 2005.
Taiwan's exports in July rose at their fastest annual pace since February, Philippine exports in June racked up a fifth straight month of double-digit annual growth, and Indonesian exports in June rose a stronger-than-expected 23.08 percent from a year earlier.
Exports are a key driver for most Asian economies and are watched closely. In Thailand, for instance, exports are equivalent to about 70 percent of gross domestic product.
"We probably have seen the top of the market and the tech sector is likely to peak in the third quarter," said Macquarie Bank's chief regional economist Bill Belchere.
"But exports have held up pretty nicely and when you look at the numbers being released now, net exports in the first half of this year should be a significant contributor to growth."
Malaysia's annual exports rose a bigger-than-expected 11.4 percent in June thanks to brisk sales of electronics and crude oil, while a 17.6 percent rise in June Thai exports helped push the current account back into surplus after 2 months of deficit.
A slower US economy should weigh on Asian exports since the United States is a major market, but most economists agree that firmer economic growth in Japan and Europe and robust demand from China and India means Asian exports should hold up well.
"Even if the US economy slows down more dramatically than anticipated, Asia is in a better shape," said Belchere.
In the Philippines, where exports in June rose 20.6 percent from a year earlier, Japan is now its top export market.
Japan accounted for 20.3 percent of total shipments in June, knocking the United States into second place with 17.2 percent.
Singapore's July non-oil exports rose 8.4 percent from a year earlier, below market expectations and against a 16.9 percent increase in June, data showed on Thursday. But Song Seng Wun, an economist at CIMB-GK Research said there was some room for a rebound as the electronics sector goes into peak production months. Electronics make up about half of Singapore's non-oil exports.
There are also some signs that US demand should hold up reasonably well in the next few months at least.
The US book-to-bill ratio for semiconductor equipment, which has a fairly strong correlation with Asian exports, has risen steadily this year. It was at 1.14 in June, suggesting that new orders are keeping pace with shipments.
"We look for a moderation in the export numbers going forward but it won't bite quite so hard and indicators have not turned negative yet," said Standard Chartered economist Joseph Tan.
Strong exports in Thailand have supported an economy hurt by a political crisis. The central bank, meanwhile, has been intervening in the market to cap a strong Thai baht, which could harm exporters.
"The baht is the best performing currency in Asia and there is concern," said Tan. "Thailand doesn't want the baht to deviate too far from the rest of the region. A strong baht may be good for imports but clearly it's not going to be competitive for exports."
South Korea was one country to watch in terms of export weakness, said analysts. Exports rose a slower-than-expected 12.4 percent in July from a year earlier, hurt by strikes at Hyundai Motor Co and other car firms. "I think there is an issue there in terms of the slowdown on the export side. Perhaps the currency is a bit misaligned and too strong for this part of the cycle," said Belchere.
The won is up 5 percent versus the dollar this year.
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