Analysts have trimmed their output forecasts for oil producers outside the Opec group this year after BP shut down half of the largest oilfield in the United States, a Reuters survey showed.
The consensus forecast for non-Opec oil output growth this year now stands at 920,000 barrels per day (bpd), a drop of 200,000 bpd since the last survey in June.
Countries outside Opec pump about 60 percent of the world's oil. When non-Opec underperforms, the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries has to step in to help meet global demand of about 85 million bpd and keep prices in check. US oil hit a record $78.40 a barrel in July after BP Plc said it was cutting output from its 400,000 bpd Prudhoe Bay oilfield due to pipeline corrosion.
Non-Opec output, plus an expected increase in Opec natural gas liquids (NGLs) and a small increase in biofuels, should still meet global demand growth forecasts of 1.24 million bpd.
But that may change if non-Opec output falls further, and some analysts still see consensus forecasts as optimistic. "The outage in Alaska provides further evidence, in our view, that consensus views on the path of non-Opec output are too optimistic," said Barclays Capital in a report.
"We see the outage as being one facet of a more generalised and increasingly evident need for longer and more severe maintenance efforts in mature non-Opec regions."
In addition to the Alaskan shutdown, BP has also fallen behind analyst output expectations on a key Gulf of Mexico project. Last month, it delayed the start-up of the 250,000 bpd Thunder Horse project to next year from late this year. The platform and project were knocked off kilter during last year's devastating hurricane season. Missing start-up dates for new projects is common globally as producers move into challenging deeper waters and less accessible areas in search of new oil.
The oil service sector is straining to meet demand from oil producers to drill explorations wells and develop new fields. Some projects have been delayed because oil producers simply can't find rigs.
"Services are tight. There are only so many qualified project managers out there and a lot of them are in the Middle East," said Rick Mueller, senior oil analyst at ESAI.
Mature producing regions such as the North Sea continue to see sharp a decline in output of around 10 percent per year, contributing to slower non-Opec growth forecasts.
Even with delays and decline in mature regions, non-Opec producers are still expected to boost output by close to a million barrels this year - a sharp increase from last year, the first year of no growth from non-Opec producers since 1993. "A million barrels a day of extra production from non-Opec is pretty good," said Mueller. "It's still reassuring for the market." Large slugs of new oil have come on line this year in the Caspian, Angola and Brazil.
After over a year of delays, BP in May started up the Baku-Ceyhan pipeline to bring crude from Azerbaijan to Turkey's Mediterranean coast. That line is pumping nearly 300,000 bpd in August.
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