Soyabean futures at the Chicago Board of Trade ended firm on Monday on a mild technical bounce as prices are at 8-1/2 month lows, traders said. "Everyone is waiting for a technical bounce but no one wants to make the first move," one CBOT floor broker said.
Soyabeans are trading below all keys moving averages and the nine-day relative strength index for November soyabeans closed at 22, within the 0-30 range viewed as a technically oversold market.
A lack of soyabean movement added support. With the country price of US soyabeans near the government's national loan rate of $5, farmers have been limiting their cash sales, traders and analysts said.
"There's no incentive for the producer to sell new-crop soyabeans at this level. Old-crop soyabeans have been moving as loans come due but basis levels are wide enough that cash prices aren't that attractive to producers," said Don Rose, analyst with US Commodities. September soyabeans closed 1-1/4 cent up at $5.48-1/4 per bushel and new-crop November ended 3/4 cent firmer at $5.61-1/4.
Overhanging the market were burdensome supplies, even though they are held in tight farmers' hands and expectations that stocks will grow due to a large US crop.
Midwest weather has turned milder in the past two weeks, which should help the soyabean crop reach maximum yield potential, traders said. Good weather has helped US soya conditions to improve. USDA said late on Monday that 58 percent of the US crop was good to excellent, up 2 points from the week before.
Traders were looking for 1-3 point improvement. Reports from annual US Midwest crop tour that began on Monday point to strong yields in the eastern Midwest.
But inspections from South Dakota show a lot of yield variability, scouts said. The western Midwest was under the most stress this summer as it saw the hottest July since the Dust Bowl years of the 1930s.
US weekly export inspections were supportive. USDA said 12.4 million bushels of soyabeans were inspected for export last week. That was within trade expectations for 8 million to 14 million and up significantly from week before tally of 6.7 million.
The dip to 8-1/2 month lows in soyabean prices last week stimulated fresh export business. Midwest cash basis bids held steady on Monday, underpinned by a lack of farmer selling, as they were disappointed in prices, dealers said.
CBOT soyameal ended weak but near on Friday's settlement prices amid a lack of fresh news. Firm US cash markets as plants talk downtime offered some support but CBOT soyameal was pressed by technical selling.
Soyaoil ended higher, recovering some from last week's fund long liquidation, traders said. A higher close in crude oil added support. Soyaoil tends to track the energies as it is used to make biodiesel. September soyameal ended steady at $159.30 per ton, and the back months were unchanged to down 70 cents. September soyaoil closed 0.25 cent up at 25.17 cents per lb, with the deferreds up 0.15 to 0.33.
The September crush ended 1-1/2 cent up at 79.08 cents/bushel. Commodity funds bought about 2,000 soyaoil on Monday and were close to even in soyabeans and soyameal, traders said.
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