Economic indicators for the eurozone to be released in the coming week will provide a snapshot of business and consumer confidence, inflation and unemployment in the 12-nation bloc.
Data are expected to provide further evidence that business confidence declined for a second consecutive month in August after peaking in June, economists said.
And inflation is also expected to have eased this month due to lower fuel prices.
On Thursday, the European Commission's economic sentiment indicator is expected to ease to 107.2 in August from a five-year high of 107.7 recorded last month.
Consumer confidence could continue its upward trend, rising to -8 from -9, but industrial confidence is expected to slip to +3 from +4 following the recent decline in national business confidence indicators.
Analysts at BNP Paribas said the prospect of weaker US growth, further ECB rate rises and next years German VAT rate hike are likely to weigh on business expectations.
Also on Thursday, data are expected to show that eurozone inflation eased to a provisional 2.2 percent in August from 2.4 percent in July and 2.5 percent in June.
A decline in German inflation augurs well for the eurozone figure, economists said.
"We even see a risk that it could come down to 2.1 percent given that the German numbers have surprised to the downside," HSBC economists said.
A decline would reflect a fall in energy prices, but some economists noted that food price inflation was edging up.
French and German unemployment data are expected on Thursday.
Economists expect a seasonally adjusted fall in German unemployment of about 13,000, following a drop in July of 84,000. This will leave the unemployment rate at 10.6 percent, they said.
French unemployment is expected to continue declining in July, with the ILO basis jobless total projected to decline by around 22,000 after a 34,000 drop the month before.
This may be enough to pull the unemployment rate down to 8.9 percent in July from 9.0 percent in June, continuing its steady decline.
On Friday, eurozone unemployment data are expected to remain on a downward trend in July, with the jobless rate easing to 7.7 percent from 7.8 percent the month before.
The same day, the eurozone purchasing managers index (PMI) for the manufacturing sector is expected to ease slightly again in August, in line with similar modest declines in national business confidence indicators over the past two months.
The manufacturing PMI is expected to fall to 57.2 in August from 57.4 in July and a six year high of 57.7 in June.
"This would still be a healthy reading, pointing to a ongoing expansion in the industry," HSBC economists said.
The EU's data agency Eurostat is also expected on Friday to confirm its provisional estimate that eurozone GDP growth accelerated to 0.9 percent in the second quarter, its strongest rate since 2000, from 0.6 percent in the first quarter.
The first breakdown of the GDP numbers are likely to show that investment and inventory building were major contributors to growth, but that consumption growth was weak.
While exports and imports remained solid, net trade probably made a modest negative contribution to growth, economists said.
On Tuesday, the German GfK market research institute's consumer climate index is expected to ease moderately to a forecast 8.5 points in September, after climbing to 8.6 in August from 8.0 in July.
Concerns over next year's VAT rate hike are starting to weigh on consumer confidence, economists said.
A consumer confidence survey is also expected in Italy on the same day.
Comments
Comments are closed.