President Joseph Kabila appears poised to win control of Congo's new parliament, according to preliminary election results, but analysts say he will still face a tough battle in next month's presidential runoff.
With results in from two-thirds of Democratic Republic of Congo's 500 parliamentary constituencies, Kabila's Alliance for the Presidential Majority (AMP) has around 45 percent of the parliamentary seats so far counted from the July 30 polls.
Kabila won 45 percent in the presidential vote, but as he failed to gain the required more than 50 percent, he faces a deciding second round run-off set for October 29 against his main rival, Vice-President Jean-Pierre Bemba, who won 20 percent.
Bemba's Rally of Congolese Nationalists (Renaco) coalition has so far gained around 14 percent of parliament seats from the first multiparty polls held in more than 40 years in the vast central African state. But with results still due mainly from the pro-Bemba, Lingala-speaking west of Congo, the difference could narrow.
"We'll probably end up with Kabila's coalition with around 40 to 45 percent of the seats, Bemba with around 20 percent, and a bunch of small non-aligned parties holding the swing vote," said one Western diplomat who is closely following the results.
The balance of power may fall to the PALU party of Antoine Ginzenga, a veteran opposition leader who came third in the presidential first round also held on July 30. Most of the 57 seats in his Bandundu province have still to be announced. The July 30 polls were the culmination of a peace process ending a 1998-2003 war that killed around 4 million Congolese.
Congo's Independent Electoral Commission was due to announce definitive results from the parliamentary elections on Monday, but commission chief Apollinaire Malu Malu said there had been some problems in Kinshasa, where all 58 seats are still pending.
More than 17,000 UN peacekeepers are deployed in Congo and diplomats said patrols appeared to have been stepped up on Monday to avoid a repetition of the violence that followed the announcement of first-round presidential results in late August.
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