Better weather in Siberia and the Urals has allowed an increase in harvesting and a narrowing of the gap between rates last year and this. Agriculture Ministry data showed that Russia had threshed 56.9 million tonnes of grains by September 5, 7.4 million tonnes less than a year ago. Last week the gap was 10.3 million tonnes.
The harvesting rate supports an earlier forecast by SovEcon for total 2006 grain production of 70-73 million tonnes. The sunseed harvest totalled 230,900 tonnes by September 5, compared with 494,700 tonnes last year. The sunseed area was 102,100 hectares and the average yield 2.26 tonnes a hectare. Grain prices rose without any sign of stabilising. Most grains increased 150-250 roubles a tonne in value in the last week. Exporters continued to raise their buying prices, which climbed to 4,400-4,500 roubles a tonne for fourth-grade wheat CPT Novorossiisk and 4,100-4,250 roubles a tonne CPT Rostov.
The market will take some time to stabilise, mainly because of a new burst of growth in world prices supported by Indian importers and poor prospects for the Australian crop.
Given the dynamic rise in prices, the government could take administrative measures to help stabilise prices - for example, selling grain from the intervention fund and/or introducing export tariffs.
Oil plants are beginning a new sunseed purchasing campaign and prices have risen to 5,500-5,700 roubles a tonne, CPT works, from 5,200-5,300 roubles a week ago.
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