Canadian farmers boosted their 2006 wheat and canola crop production estimates, a Statistics Canada report said Thursday, confirming industry expectations. "It's not any big surprise," a trader said about the canola projection. Another trader called the report a "non event".
Statscan pegged the 2006 canola crop at 8.485 million tonnes. This is up from the 7.977 million tonnes estimated in its July 31 production report and down from the 9.66 million tonnes seen a year ago.
The estimate was in line with traders' average projection ahead of the report, at 8.4 million tonnes. The estimate was boosted from the July report after Manitoba producers harvested better-than-expected yields after conditions improved following a hot and dry summer.
Canola yields in the Prairie province could hit a record 32.1 bushels per acre, up from the previous record in 2003 at 31.3 bu/ac, the report said.
On the other hand, production in Saskatchewan and Alberta was projected to decline. Canola, a cash crop for Canadian farmers, is a variant of rapeseed and is crushed to make cooking oil and biodiesel. Another trader said the overall figure would continue to rise after farmers in Alberta, where combining has been slowed by recent cool and wet weather, complete this year's harvest.
The above-average temperatures and dry weather that stressed Western Canadian crops also boosted maturity, making for an early harvest. As a result, many farmers had most of the crop in storage when Statscan surveyed 17,100 farmers between September 5 and 12 for the report. Front-month November canola futures were down C$1 at $300.50 per tonne at the Winnipeg Commodity Exchange on Thursday morning, while January futures were down $1.40 at $308.60.
WHEAT AND BARLEY PRICES TO FIRM UP All wheat production was pegged at 26.289 million tonnes, up mildly from traders' average estimate at 26.2 million tonnes and down from 26.8 million tonnes produced in 2005.
Statscan pegged spring wheat production at 19.234 million tonnes, up from 18.788 million tonnes a year ago and within trade expectations.
The report estimated durum, a specific kind of wheat used to make pasta, at 3.538 million tonnes, down from 5.9 million tonnes in 2005 and down from the 10-year average at 4.7 million tonnes.
"There's pretty good demand in durum right now. Durum will probably be pretty strong this year. Supplies are going to be very tight this year," Darren Frank, grain analyst for FarmLink Marketing Solutions, said, citing production problems in Australia.
Barley supplies were also expected to be tight during the 2006/2007 (August/July) crop year. Statscan estimated barley production at 10.011 million tonnes, down slightly from trade projections of 10.2 million tonnes and down from 12.5 million tonnes the previous year.
"I would think we're going to see firm prices throughout the whole winter," Frank said. Production of oats was estimated at 3.782 million tonnes, up from 3.4 million tonnes a year ago and up from the 10-year average of 3.5 million tonnes.
Canadian farmers were expected to harvest 959,000 tonnes of flax, down from 1.1 million tonnes in 2005, but up from the 800,000-tonne average, the report said.
Comments
Comments are closed.