German exports leapt by 6.6 percent on the month in September, their fastest increase in more than four years, underlining the strength of growth in Europe's largest economy in the third quarter.
Federal Statistics Office data on Wednesday showed the trade surplus widened to a seasonally adjusted 15.0 billion euros ($19.16 billion), from 12.4 billion in August, although the result was boosted by late reports from August.
"These are great figures. They confirm that overall economic growth was supported in the third quarter by foreign trade," said Ulrike Kastens, economist at Sal. Oppenheim. Kastens forecast the overall economy had grown 0.9 percent on the quarter, matching its performance in the second quarter, which was the strongest in more than five years.
Other recent reports on the economy have also pointed to strong third-quarter growth. Germany has depended heavily on strong exports to drive growth in recent years, with the domestic economy held back by high unemployment and weak consumer spending.
A labour market revival has raised hopes of a more balanced recovery, though a sales tax rise next year is widely expected to slow the economy. Earnings at retailer KarstadtQuelle pointed to a some strength in consumer spending.
"In the third quarter we made the biggest gain in sales since the fall of the Berlin Wall 17 years ago," said KarstadtQuelle's Chief Executive Thomas Middelhoff.
The government's panel of economic advisers said in a report on Wednesday it expected the economy to grow by 2.4 percent this year and by 1.8 percent in 2007, adding that the European Central Bank's monetary policy remained slightly expansive.
"Furthermore, additional interest rate rises could be needed if there should be second-round effects, of which there are no signs at the moment," the panel known as the "wise men" said.
Germany exported goods worth a record 79.0 billion euros in seasonally adjusted terms in September, a 6.6 percent gain on the month, the Office said. It imported goods worth 64.0 billion euros - also a record - a gain of 3.8 percent. The monthly increase in exports was the biggest since June 2002, a spokesman for the Statistics Office said.
"The high figure was boosted somewhat by late reports from the previous month, so there was a slight distortion," he added. The mid-range forecast of 26 economists polled by Reuters last week was for September's surplus to come in at 13.1 billion euros. Exports were expected to rise 1.0 percent on the month, with imports seen up 0.3 percent.
According to a Reuters calculation based on the Office data, German exports rose by 5.0 percent in the July through September period compared with the previous quarter. Imports were up by 4.8 percent on the quarter.
In the first nine months of the year, exports rose 12.8 percent on the year, with imports up 18.1 percent. "The monthly increase in the trade surplus is stronger than expected," said Lothar Hessler at HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt. "All told, Germany has raised competitiveness," he added. Reflecting the strength of Germany's export sector, consumer goods group Henkel on Wednesday reported a 7 percent rise in third-quarter operating earnings.
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