US strike could delay Iran's nuclear-plan by under four years

A US military strike against Iran would set back Tehran's suspected quest for nuclear arms by less than four years, US officials and independent experts say.
The timeline for a post-attack scenario, which some officials described as part of an intelligence community assessment to Congress, suggests Iran has hidden enough centrifuge components and fissile material to revive its nuclear aims long before its Islamic government is likely to give way to reform.
One official denied that the office of US intelligence chief John Negroponte had prepared a formal assessment that specifically addresses the potential impact of a US military strike against Iran.
The same official also declined to discuss classified conversations about Iran that have taken place between members of Negroponte's office and lawmakers on the Senate and House of Representatives intelligence committees. "We've had such an assessment ... it's for less than four years," said another official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter.
"Four years is a long time, and something could happen to change things dramatically. But I don't think there are many views that in four years we would see some movement toward changing the regime in Iran," the official added.
That time frame also accords with expectations among independent analysts. "It's impossible to say for sure without knowing what kind of intelligence a potential strike might be based on. But the two- to four-year estimate is very plausible," said Michael Eisenstadt, a military and security analyst at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
Senior intelligence officials view Iran as a country proceeding on a dual track - nuclear arms and political reform. At its current pace, Tehran is not expected to achieve weapons status until early in the next decade.
The United States and its allies, including Israel, have accused Tehran of pursuing nuclear weapons under the guise of a civilian energy programme and are pushing for UN sanctions.
Iran, the world's fourth largest oil exporter, denies it is pursuing nuclear weapons. But it is forging ahead with uranium enrichment and stonewalling efforts by the UN watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, to probe its activities. While President George W. Bush stresses a diplomatic solution, he has refused to rule out a military strike.
Some analysts believe the United States could be forced to act in 2007 to head off a strike by Israel, which fears a nuclear Iran would threaten its existence. Others say military action is not likely, especially after the departure of hardlineBush and Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert turned up the heat on Iran on Monday at a White House meeting, where Olmert said Tehran must not be allowed to "cross the technological threshold."