Indian sugar miller sees export ban lifted soon

India's top sugar miller S.L. Jain said on Wednesday he expected India's sugar export ban to be lifted within two weeks. Asked by Reuters on the sidelines of the International Sugar Organisation (ISO) seminar when he expected the ban to be lifted, he said: "My assessment is maybe a week, or a maximum two weeks (before ban is lifted)."
Jain, director-general of the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA), added: "Domestic (Indian) market prices have declined. The world market has declined. There is no sound reason at all for the authorities to continue with this."
The sugar export ban was imposed in India to keep a lid on rising domestic prices.
India is the world's second largest sugar producing country after Brazil, and is the world's biggest sugar consumer.
Jain said he expected the whites-over-raws sugar premium to rise due to tight availability of high-quality European refined sugar. Asked to forecast a trend for sugar prices, Jain said, "The differential between raws and whites is going to widen a bit."
He said the reason for the widening premium would be an expected increase in white sugar prices due to tight availability of high-quality European white sugar.
He declined to give figures. Jain forecast that Indian sugar production in 2007/08 would stand at least 23.2 million tonnes, the level predicted for 2006/07. "07/08: I can give you one forecast - it can't be lower than what we'll do in 06/07," he said.
Jain has forecast 2006/07 Indian sugar output at 23.2 million tonnes, up from 19.2 million tonnes in 2005/06. He told the seminar earlier that sugar consumption in India in 2006/07 was around 19 million tonnes. Jain said closing sugar stocks in India in 2006/07 were seen at 5.6 million tonnes, up from 4.4 million in 2005/06. He added that he forecast Indian 2006/07 sugar exports at 920,000 tonnes, up from 320,000 in 2005/06.
"An evenly balanced demand and supply position will be emerging (in India)," Jain said. "A comfortable sugar supply situation will ensure the steady growth of the sugar industry, not only to meet the rising demand for sugar in the country, but also to harness the potential for regular sizeable exports of sugar." The two-day ISO seminar ended on Wednesday.