Poland's jobless rate fell to an almost six-year low in October, data showed on Friday, and a statistics office official said the economy likely grew at least 5.5 percent in annual terms in the third quarter.
Statistics office numbers showed retail sales continued strong growth in October, despite being a touch below forecasts at 13.3 percent year-on-year. Unemployment fell to 14.9 percent, dipping below 15 percent for the first time since 1998.
Many economists maintain Poland's official jobless rate, the highest in the European Union, is artificially high due to a large grey economy. But the fall still reflects the impact of an economy that expanded 5.5 percent in the second quarter of this year.
"Foreign trade and investment data show that our previous estimates saying that the third quarter will not be worse than the second are still valid," the statistics office's deputy head Janusz Witkowski told a news conference after the data. The office publishes gross domestic product data for the third quarter on November 30.
Analysts in a Reuters poll last week predicted retail sales would rise 14.4 percent year-on-year in October, close to the 14.5 percent seen a month earlier. Poland's economy expanded 3.5 percent in 2005 and the number out of work has fallen steadily from a peak above 20 percent early in 2004, helped by an opening of EU job markets in 2004 and a steady rise in exports and investment.
Friday's data also suggested investment by larger Polish companies rose 19.8 percent year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2006. Data including small and medium-sized firms is due with growth data next week. "Unemployment is in line with the trend of recent months and there is a high chance that we will end the year at 15 percent," Wisniewski said.
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