South Africa's most traded white maize futures edged down on Tuesday on signs that part of the coming year's harvest is doing well and after steady gains over the past few sessions.
But traders said the market is still gripped by fears that there will not be enough rain to sustain the new season's output, with only a few weeks to go for farmers to plant. March white maize closed 11 rand lower at 1,460 rand a tonne, or 0.75 percent down. But the contract was still over two percent up on its close on Friday and weather jitters should continue to support prices, traders said.
"Apparently the irrigation maize is coming into its pollination stage ... You need the atmosphere to sustain the life of pollen. And right now I think our atmosphere is very much sustaining the pollen and the plants are not under stress," a trader said.
A second trader said a firmer rand had also contributed to the slight decline but expected ongoing weather problems to bolster prices. A meteorologist from the South African Weather Service said on Monday there is a 40 percent chance of above normal rains across the grain belt for the rest of the year but the trader said it may not be enough, while strong winds were also beginning to pose a threat to the new crop.
"We've got to go up ... I think short term another 40 rand up for this week," he said, putting the next target after that at around 1,530 rand.
At the same time, data released after the market closed showed that South African exports fell in the week to December 8 - one of the few bearish factors in a year when the market has rallied on supply concerns.
Exports have been sluggish this season, adding to large carry-over stocks and at one stage weighing on prices. South African white maize exports fell to 3,524 tonnes from 7,686 tonnes the previous week, the South African Grain Information Service (SAGIS) said. Yellow maize exports were slightly lower at 1,326 tonnes from 1,359 tonnes. South Africa also imported 17,871 tonnes from Argentina from 21,984 tonnes the week before, SAGIS added.
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