Shifting sands overseas

These are not boring times. Things seem to be changing, and uncertainty rising, at a pace not seen since the 9/11 tragedy. And the source that personifies much of the global anxiety is Donald Trump. Thanks to Americas global footprint, very few corners of the world are immune to the Trump thought-process on Twitter. Days away from taking presidential oath, he has upped his criticism of just about everyone.

An unprecedented infighting is consuming the US these days. Last week Trump accused the CIA yes, the CIA of leaking a confidential but incriminatingly lurid dossier on Trumps activities in Russia. Hitting back over questions on his November 8 victorys legitimacy, he disparaged a respected icon of the civil rights movement, causing much backlash.

Overseas, Trump added to an already-tense environment by calling Nato obsolete, even as Nato moved its forces to European states bordering or near Russia. He openly criticised the German Chancellors open refugee policy, and drew rebuke. But he continued to heap praise on Russian President Vladimir Putin, despite US Intelligences conclusion that Russian hacking had favored Trump over Clinton. Recently, after Trumps third attempt to bring Taiwan into play, a Chinese government mouthpiece threatened that China will take off the gloves if Trump continued to challenge the One China Policy.

Globalism took another pounding when the British PM announced in a major speech this week her plan of a clean, hard Brexit. Couched in diplospeak that masked Britains growing nationalist and protectionist tendencies, Theresa May warned Europeans that no deal for Britain is better than a bad deal. The speech, which zeroed in on EU27 vulnerabilities and glossed over Britains own Brexit weakness, was a political master class. But it may lead to more unraveling of the European unity project.

Here is what it looks. Under Trump, the USs decades-long global leadership mantle is under deep suspicion. Russia is fast becoming a regional overlord, expanding its influence orbit not only inside the frontiers of Eastern Europe but also trying to crack the democratic wall inside Western Europe. Caught between those two super-powers, Europe may not feel secure anymore. Already, bosses in Brussels have to contend with economic lethargy, security lapses, and Brexit-like movements in some EU nations.

In this scenario, when the Chinese President made a surprise visit to Davos and forcefully defended the forces of globalisation, many commentators saw that as Chinas desire to cast Xi Jinping as a global statesman where other nations are failing to produce one. It is the same country which not many decades ago prosecuted capitalist roaders, but has now become so inter-dependent with the world that it needs to keep on trading to maintain social stability in China. An unlikely ally, but EU has to embrace Xi.

Since the nineteen eighties there was this tacit economic agreement in place that shared prosperity can result from free trade and investment regimes. That understanding papered over territorial disputes and sharply varying worldviews among major powers such as US, EU, China and Russia. With that pact under duress the UK has in effect threatened a trade war on EU if it didnt get a favorable FTA post-Brexit and with Pax Americana gasping for life, the gloves may indeed be coming off. A showdown is inevitable, just when is anyones guess.