Cotton buying continued though tussle in perception of the buyers and sellers over price led to restrain during the week ended on January 20, 2007. Spot rate opened at Rs 2500 but was raised by Rs 25. Another rise was marked on Friday taking the spot rate to Rs 2550.
WORLD SCENARIO: Trading in NYCE has stayed patchy owing to holidays since Xmas/new years day. Weak under review opened on Tuesday after days of closures on account of Martin Luther King's Day on Monday. However futures rose modestly on the opening day. March was up 0.22 cent to 54.92 cents a pound and May up 0.23 to 55.79. The first session on Tuesday closed firmer owing to speculative buying though players were still looking for motivating factors.
The analysts observed that futures were supported by rising belief that surging grain prices would eventually rob cotton of acreage in 2007 season. Most eagerly await4ed USDA's supply/demand report disappointed players. Now the traders were talking about plantings when it would be discussed in the National Cotton Council's annual meeting in coming month.
The third session sustained rise in future owing to speculative buying and inspiration from a rally in corn prices. The traders feel cotton will take its cue from grains for some more days.
Meanwhile weekly export sales report was awaited after that market will turn its focus to estimates on spring plantings. On Thursday eager wait for orders from China lingered on as small speculators brought some pace in otherwise depressed market. Reports are pretty encouraging that increased consumption in China will prompt it to have enhanced buying and America will have its major share. However they presume it will trickle in only after the Lunar New Year festivities across Asia. Meanwhile somewhat harassed cotton traders, due to too long wait for a normal trading, said "market is basically in state of stalemate. We got another six weeks of misery."
On Friday futures resisted decadence and ended mixed as usual small speculators created little activity. The market operators continued to wail for inspiring news. Meanwhile, much awaited USDA weekly export sales report showed sales at 271,700 RBS better then last week shipments order hit 190,000 RBS also better than the last week. China entered the market wit 81,700 RB on top of the list of buyers from any other country. March ended lower by 0.53 cent to 54.53 cents and May down 0.43 to 55.52 cents a pound.
LOCAL TRADING: Cotton buying sustained on the cotton market though reservations on the part of both buyers and sellers restricted it to slow paced. The consumers were firm that prices are coming down but ginners were not ready to relax despite good cotton production. The spot rate was up Rs 25 the opening day, which prompted smart buying. The ready rates were marked between Rs 2400 and Rs 2590. However, one lot of 3000 bales was lifted at Rs 2610.
On the second day transaction came down to around 12,000 bales, as buyers were expecting prices to go down. In ready, on second day the rates were up in proportion to rise in spot rate.
The millers had in view the glut like situation in the world but ginners were keeping stiff neck on their own thinking that millers need good quantity still. According to market sources the cotton exporters presence has encouraged sellers to keep prices as they like.
On Wednesday millers changed policy to lift only the most needed cotton still expecting ginners will relax and prices. Ginners showing belief that need millers will return to market on their dictated rates. Only 5000 bales were lifted in price range of Rs 2400 to Rs 2600. On Thursday buyers seemingly came to conclusion that ginners are adamant and may hold sales and hence returned to market.
They lifted more or less 30,000 bales at prices range between Rs 2975 and Rs 2580. However some lots from Sadiqabad and RY khan fetched as high as Rs 2625. Market sources thought though generally sales remain depress in world's leading markets, but all eyes are set on China and its decision after the new year festivities o Friday prices were raised without much reason. Market sources saw the factor was tight supply position but the reason was nowhere. Only 10000 bales changed hands in the price ranged o Rs 2475 and Rs 2575 depending on quality spot price was raised by Rs 25, second time during the week taking the total to Rs 2550. The result was that spinners and millers were sent to sidelines before immediate needs prompt them to start buying again on Saturday.
On Saturday buyers were compelled to be cautious as prices still higher. Only a few thousand bales changed hands.
CELEBRATE UNLIMITED: At last happy news of a breakthrough in clean cotton production decorated newspapers. Since 20 year or like time period carried this column why it could not be possible for over half a century? Those who would have not turned manufacturers and exporters of textile products allowed cotton exporters to export at cumulatively a loss of dollar one billion. And they resisted to buy from ginners nearly or clean cotton at prices asked by the sellers. Thus cotton exports continued while textile exporters never tried to resist cotton exports.
The result was people were instrumental in two way losses, one allowed cotton exports though they always tried to impress authorities who matter that exporters will face shortfall and two, that caused huge loss which was never regretted.
Today the efforts have brought fruition, the cost govt has paid could never be made known. The noise of shortfall of cotton locally was to import good quality cotton Pak was unable to produce.
Imports have eaten the vital of the still struggling to survive country where skyscrapers have been raising heads to impress the world. Sugar issues, over invoicing under invoicing , claim for refunds types, textile machinery imports, chemicals and dyes imports have not come to grip of even strongest of kings in Pakistan. Even America has only months back send billionaires to jail for misdoings. But there is no check and Atuturk to stop factors leading to destabilising this country who it has treated so softly.
The report says a team of professionals achieved this feat. Where were they in 1948/50s? A former commerce minister Razzak Dawood spent lot of hours and money to coin a world that clean cotton culture will be talk of the world. Now the good news only one Lakh bales have been produced lint free by 17 mllls in Punjab and 6 in Sindh. One is in doubt, whether Razzak Dawood's story will be repeated or Pakistan will shortly become be known as producer of clean cotton and fine textile products.
MOVE AGAINST EU: Pakistan's patient wait for quite long time to see things moved in its favour on several counts. Sent its blood boiling against blatantly discriminating action. Many would wonder how and why it decided to go to WTO to challenge EU against anti- dumping duty imposed in 2004 on it's prime products bedlinein. Many would wonder not because the other regional rival countries have been free hand naturally making Pak products to stand nowhere close to compete.
Those who know how Pakistan has been treated wretchedly besides anti-dumping duty but has been deprived of GSP plus facility India has been approached by EU to ink an accord on FTA (Free Trade Agreements) while, in this field too, Pak was asked to measure its size. All these were cooking for sometime tough efforts had continued to win over, finally in disgust threatened to challenge in the dispute forum of the WTO. What WTO surprised knowledgeable circles almost foamed. But gathering their anger and disappointment fully composed themselves to prepare for a reasonable answer.
And finally in a voice as if from quit long distance they jointly reminded that you still see the WTO is getting new lease of life from " "SPONSORS"? Only Bush can revive WTO which he knows and all know that it is counting its day. The newly installed Democrats have always been threatening to go against any such accord. But in days left he can command will engage him in Iraq to the last until he accepts Vietnam type defeat. Bush's vestiges who are out to old friends to remind that American and Pakistan both failed to bring terrorism to a halt. It US is taken away from the sentence trying to be outspoken and realist, Pakistan is left over to bear the allegation. It could have come to authorities here that top US leaders would appreciate "Sacrifices" Pakistan was making, miniatures here and elsewhere correcting by saying that everything was not all peaceful on border- Indian and Afghanistan's. Pakistan has delayed in approaching WTO on deathbed it must have reason for it.
Pakistan should hold its "reasons" sacred to enter battlefield. The WTO forum delivers favourable but it has no means to enforce same! Keep in mind EU case against US.
WTO TALKS REVIVAL BID: A vast majority of people in developing countries has erased the hope that the good days in the wake of WTO is advancing towards them. But sort of sponsors, particularly the EU, and US have not given up hope with small time gap the give clarion call for showing flexibility (poor countries) to effect a breakthrough in stalled talks.
Since July 24, 2006, chief Pascal Lamy surrendered by declaring it suspended, US has made several bids the president included. But disappointment was pretty deep, neither Lamy nor the EU paid any heed to the calls. Bush the other day flew to Vietnam more particularly to use the platform for call the oxygenate fatigued WTO. The Vietnamese President obliged him by appealing for resumption of talks.
However, only now the voice emerged again out of Asean summit as leaders from China, Japan, India, S Korea Australia, New Zealand to ensure the beginning of Doha Round. The WOT, they however reminded that The WTO members must demonstrate flexibility by moving beyond their stuck up position in key areas like farm and industrial subsidies. According to a report a US official speaking a couple of days back sought more from developing countries making it clear that its offer is last and final.
A senior official from India agreed to add to his efforts to help revive the stalled Doha trade talks, but won't agree to endanger the livelihood of its forming sector. India could be flexible, he sought developing countries must also review their rigid instance over farm subsidies. Brazil a top third world representative too expressed similar feelings and reiterated his stand on WTO revival.
The time factor is so much short until July 2007 to be oblivious to the fact any more. The language that is in the air after some months gap vibrates that rich countries are firm, though they leave some hints, of flexibility together, only the developing counties, will submit to demands of the rich few as a saying goes, "Bhagte Bhut Ki Langoti Sahi". So until July 2007 only developing countries have to hold their nerve but then?
IS THIS PM'S REPLY: A time from the blues comes for leaders who thank they would have done better for the country. When one after another leaders on Pak "gaddi" were being tried somebody whispered in ear that Shaukat was getting restive to try his hand. It was most likely time some "care taker PM" was being asked to mend the dents in country's politics and economy.
The present president, for the above whisper or on his closen Shaukat Aziz and borrowed him from the World Bank, perhaps. After a few years of exercise, PM was satisfied with what he had done for the economy and the country and bulk of Pakistani's who have turned indifferent from politics or economy, had perhaps okayed PM's performance by and large. He started recounting one by one all the ordinarily visible positive results in forex reserve, economic progress, remittances on increase etc.
The people who have turned indifferent over who is coming and who were ousted right since, quietly embraced claim, when overnight decline was claimed in textile sector exports. The decline was regularly being supplied to newspapers with facts and figures. The textile leaders succeeded in getting promise from some high ups for a grand Rs 50 billion package, though that was truncated to Rs 30 billion.
Once this was learnt by other exporters belonging to other sector them textiles, all formed queue to claim packages. Latest claim/demand by textile exporters was Rs 80 to Rs 100 billion. The demand was contained in strategic committee report. Meanwhile, officials informed that "after listening to the proposals and recommendations the PM told representatives of textile sector that PM would wait to see report figures for the months of November and December in order to assess, as to whether the decline in textile exports during July/October reflected a trend or was only an aberration." Besides, the officials informed the PM also told industry representative that after going facts/figures he would constitute a working group. However, the restive exporters in the meantime perhaps in reply to PM's hints said growth in textile was a healthy sign but it should be compared with regional countries where Pak textile exports fetched the lowest.
TAIL PIECE: So much has been said about textile sector said to have been hit by "high cost of business". But neither govt nor sectorvictims bothered touch vital question that may or may not be causing/adding to "high cost of business?" Why for six decades textile sector or govt never thought to set up a textile machinery plant (India, China did so as back as 1960s), and chemical and dyes production units (both China and India exports the three items to this country causing drain of billions of dollars ever since textiles products are being exported from Pakistan.
How much above missing items are adding to so called recently emerged phrase "high cost of business." Should not now knowledgeable and those have been draining out billions of dollar annually and coining words of other than English to inch closer to judging things as they do exist.
Comments
Comments are closed.