The prolonged honeymoon in Anglo-German relations following the election of Chancellor Angela Merkel could come to an abrupt end over her plans to revive the failed EU constitution, political commentators in London said.
While officials in the government of Prime Minister Tony Blair insist that Britain will play a "constructive and positive" role in trying to find a way out of the impasse, analysts believe that in fact London will do all it can to scupper the German plans.
The timing of Merkel's initiative, outlined as a starting shot to Germany's rotating EU presidency, is highly inconvenient for Britain. If Merkel's aim to have a revised form of the constitution ready by mid-2009 latest is realised, it could clash directly with a general election in Britain, observers noted.
An expected heated debate about the constitution, and about whether or not it should be put to a referendum, could, analysts believe, benefit the Conservative Party and damage the chances of Labour under its presumed next leader Gordon Brown.
It is highly likely that the British public would give a resounding "no" to the idea of an EU constitution. Geoff Hoon, the minister for Europe in the Foreign Office, acknowledged this week that there was at present "no consensus" on the future of the constitution treaty, overwhelmingly rejected by voters in France and the Netherlands in 2005.
However, it remained the position of the British government that the treaty, if it is revived, should be put to a referendum, Hoon said. Downing Street, the office of Blair, was less forthcoming. "Let us take this step by step," a spokesman said.
While the position of the presidency was "important" and had to be taken into account, "the position on the ground - in France and Holland" also had to be part of the equation, he stressed.
The hint makes clear where the government is heading. If its anti- constitution stance should succeed, it would free Labour from its referendum pledge - something that would be highly welcome by the government of the day.
A senior British official said that the government would argue that the EU is working well within its existing treaties and does not need a constitution nor a fresh round of referenda.
The only way to avoid that would be to scrap the idea of a constitution or to present a dramatically slimmed-down treaty that makes technical changes in voting arrangements to reflect Europe's expansion from 15 to 27 nations.
The British position is at complete loggerheads with Merkel's plan of restoring the bulk of the rejected document, including sections that would create a European foreign minister and end the British veto in home affairs and justice policy.
The official said: "Europe is not broken. Decisions are being taken every month. So you cannot say Europe's future hangs on another bout of institutional reform."
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