Euro zone swap rates fell sharply on Friday after the release of a newswire report that the European Central Bank may not raise interest rates as aggressively or quickly as financial markets had expected.
Citing "well informed sources", Market News International reported that the ECB may raise rates in March or even April but then pause for several months. That would bring the ECB's benchmark refi rate to 3.75 percent, up from 3.5 percent currently. On Friday, traders cut their bets on the ECB raising a further quarter point in June to around a 40 percent chance from a two in three probability earlier in the day.
Swaps and implied interest rates were already under downward pressure along with bond yields after January's US employment report. But that pressure intensified after the MNSI story.
Two-year swap rates were at 4.13 percent, down from as high as 4.20 percent earlier in the session and from 4.175 percent late on Thursday, while 10-year rates were at down at 4.284 percent from 4.31 percent on Thursday. The 2s-10s curve steepened a couple of basis points to 15 basis points, while the 10s-30s curve was steeper at 13 basis points from 11 basis points on Thursday. Volumes had been light earlier in the day before picking up after the US employment report for January.
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