Last year, which will go down in Karachi's history as the year of the worst energy crisis, the problems did not begin until late March. This year, however, the city experienced frequent power failure and unofficial loadshedding from the very first week of January.
This was a blow to my sense of self-importance and dashed my ambition to succeed Pir Pagara sahib as the country's political fortune teller. Among my New Year predictions was that the city would have less loadshedding because 2007 was election year. This was based on the theory that no politician could afford to annoy Karachi voters who are quite capable of upsetting the political applecart.
Not even the President, who is assured of being selected for another five-year term, could allow the process of his selection/election to be tarnished by a year full of water and power riots in the megacity.
But it is clear that I have overestimated Karachi's nuisance value in my New Year predictions. It seems nobody is afraid of us anymore.
Loadshedding and power failure continue and there are signs that the energy crisis will be full-blown even before summer sets in. A proof that nobody is afraid of aggravating Karachiites is the confident manner in which the government decided to increase electricity tariff by 10 percent, with effect from February 24, for all categories of consumers except those who consume 50 units per month or less.
Just how confident the government can be noted from the fact that for three years the power tariff had not been increased. The last time was in November 2003, and despite the fact that the cost of thermal power generation has skyrocketted due to 54 percent increase in the oil price, the tariff was not raised for three years. Meanwhile, Wapda deficit touched 80 billion and that of KESC 17 billion rupees. Yet in those three years the government could not "afford" to raise the tariff. This year it can, despite it being an election year.
What does this mean? Does it mean that even the general elections, scheduled to be held early next year, will be a sharade just like the election of the President, scheduled late this year? Or does it mean there won't be any general elections? I can't tell, you will have to ask Pir sahib.
Even though power failure and unofficial loadshedding began unusually early this year, I did not think my political calculations were really off the mark. Especially when a very worried Liaquat Ali Jatoi, Federal Minister for Water and Power, called a hasty meeting on January 16 of the stakeholders in power generation to find quick-fix solutions for the estimated 2,000 megawatt energy shortage the country will suffer from March onward. The area most in need of the quick-fix was, of course, Karachi.
The meeting was attended by Secretary Water and Power Ashfaq Mehmood and advisor Riaz Ahmad as well as Wapda, KESC, generation-and-distribution companies and independent power producers (IPPs). From the meeting it emerged that last year's energy crisis was not electricity-related but due to Wapda's "difficulties" to make full payments to the fuel suppliers and IPPs.
It is amazing that a whole troubled year went by and Wapda was not put on the rack. It was only after the January 16 meeting that Jatoi asked for a report about Wapda's income stream and running expenditure to determine why it had "difficulties" in making payments last year. When the IPPs did not get their money within he contracted payment schedule last year, they stopped power supply.
So, it seems, one of the quick-fix solutions has been to raise the power tariff. A spokesman for the Ministry of Water and Power said the increase in electricity tariff was unavoidable, "otherwise the Water and Power Development Authority and KESC would have gone broke".
This is a highly ridiculous excuse for raising the power tariff. How can a 10 percent raise prevent Wapda and KESC from going broke? If this was the purpose, the ministry should have gone for the full 33 percent increase in tariff proposed by the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority. The ministry has done no favour to the consumer by raising the tariff by 10 percent, nor can it assuage the money problems of Wapda and KESC.
Government will have to continue to provide a subsidy as a consequence, of Rs 54.5 billion to Wapda and Rs 14.15 billion to KESC consumers. Yet that 10 percent increase in tariff is going to be a burden and will lead to further inflation. The big power consumers, industry and trade will pass the buck to the public by increasing the price of their products and services.
So even if the consumers who will not be directly affected by the increased tariff, that is the lower and lower-middle income groups, those who consume 50 units or less per month, they will be badly hit by the rising cost of everything else they consume. It is bilge to say the tariff increase will prevent Wapda and KESC from going broke. The ones who are likely to go broke are the public.
This is not the only fanciful idea the Ministry for Water and Power as well as Wapda and KESC have had. The meeting of January 16 had discussed restricting illuminations of marriage halls, banning all billboards, reducing the illumination at petrol pumps, and decreasing the number of streetlights. You know where the axe will fall heaviest - in Karachi.
Wapda estimated 800 megawatt energy needs could be met through these initiatives. Sure, and there will be a corresponding rise in crime in the darkened city.
Other recommendations were two weekly holidays, no commercial activity after sunset and different tariffs for peak and off-peak power consumption through time-of-day meters. Providing subsidy for energy saving devices like bulbs and appliances was also suggested.
In all this inspiring talk, you may have noticed, there was no mention as to how the Wapda was going to honour its debts to the IPPs. Nor any concrete plan as to how the power deficit of 2,000 megawatts is to be met. In short, there was no hint that the major power generators was responsible and morally and technically at fault. The most disappointing thing is that all these suggestions were merely that, suggestions. There were no working plans, no feasibility, no projections as to how the implementation of any of these ideas is going to affect the economy, the state of inflation, the well-being of the already burdened ordinary people.
One fine day, all the stakeholders will say, "Hey, that's a good idea. Let's do it." And suddenly we will wake up to discover we have been subjected to another inconvenience. For example, if marriage halls cannot be illuminated, where is a wedding to be held? The Ministry for Water and Power and its pet babies, Wapda and KESC could care less how the public is to manage.
Personally, I wouldn't mind less light at night. These days I cannot see the stars because of the brightness. On second thought, considering most thefts take place in the night, let there be light in this victimised city.
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