The highest power demand of 15,511 MW (attained during the summer of 2006) is expected to rise by another 10% or so in the coming summers. As a consequence, Wapda and the KESC systems will be subjected to an accumulative maximum demand of up-to 17,000 MW or so.
The pessimists (most of the experts) are prophesising long shut downs and even blackouts in the early and late summers during this year, baring a miracle. The later of the happening cannot be discounted because the weather pundits are also predicting a very hot summer coupled with monsoons.
And as the summers are expected to set-in much earlier in comparison to the last year, the early rising Jhelum River and glacial melt sustaining both Mangla and Tarbela Reservoirs can be expected to deliver 4,842 MW (their maximum output of September, 2006) for a much longer and sustained periods.
This may help in the availability of somewhat extra level of hydel power in the over all scenario. As providence cannot be depended upon wholly and solely and because nothing new is being contemplated in the hydel sector, it is time to look towards the efforts being made to add upon to the existing thermal generation capacities of both Wapda and the KESC.
We also need to list the new IPP's in the offing. Study reveals that rental power contracted by Wapda and destined to be installed near Sheikhupura (500 KV Grid Sheikhupura and 132 KV Grid at Bhikhi) would be able to add 300 MW (two plants of 150 MW capacity each) to the Utility's system on schedule. As these plants are at present in their final stages of completion, Wapda seems to have completed its part of the bargain.
KESC, on the other hand, has been able to revamp and rehabilitate its existing power stations, consequent of which the smaller of Pakistan's two power utilities will be able to add about 200 MW of extra power to its total capability. These figures when added up lead us to the fact that both Wapda and the KESC will be able to add an extra 500 MW to the total generation capacity of the country and nothing more.
Both these utilities have also added up some new T&D capacity, with WAPDA investing a hefty Rs 14 billion during the financial year 2005-06 and Rs 68 billion now in the ongoing fiscal. As the quantum of this work is gigantic, it may spill over to the next fiscal too. KESC's investment in this regards is much smaller and may also be spread over to the coming five years.
Now is the time to have an insight into the IPP front. In this regard, a visit to the PPIB web-site will make very interesting showings. It informs us that no IPP is scheduled to come on-bar these summers and the one such entity expected to start production at the earliest will only be available at the end of the next calendar year. That it may be a case of too little and too late is another story better left for a separate study.
In view of these stark realities, it will be appropriate to conclude that against the growth requirement of at least 1500 MW, the country as a whole will only see an addition of 500 MW to the system. Another interesting facet to the situation would be the need to consider the actual shortage of 1000 MW in 2006, against the maximum demand of 15,511 MW and the fact that this demand was infact a suppressed figure (through loadshedding etc).
If we add this number to the requirement then the deficit after subtracting the above quoted 500 MW of capacity (to be added by WAPDA and the KESC) would reach a mind boggling 2000 MW. Actually it can be likened to the doubling of energy crises of the last year.
Similarly, the present level of capacity addition to the T&D structures reveals that it may, at the most, enhance the existing capability by 1000 MW (a remarkable achievement), which will not be able to cater for the upcoming load demands due to the impending shortage in generation.
As the above figures are true, which unfortunately cannot be wished away, the issue which readily come to our mind is how can such a level of generation shortage and lack of T&D capacity be wardedoff.
Moreover, is there some strategy which can be evolved in order to bring the national power demand down from the expected 17,000 (after substracting the 500 MW listed earlier on) to about a maximum of 15,000 MW or so. In other words, the 10% growth and the 5 to 7% of shortage felt during the last summers has to be taken care of and then somehow smothered.
Power sector experts and those having an understanding of power shortage dynamics, consider conservation as the only solution for us. This they recommend to be taken up in earnest and as a national policy, notwithstanding the election year and the requirements that go with it.
The question that arises now is whether conservation would allow us to reduce our demand by 2000 MW or not. Can it possibly provide us with the required breathing space in order to cogently add to our capacity (which may take up-to 2-3 years). Can both industry and agriculture keep on drawing power for its need.
In order to provide an answer, we will now proceed to come up with the figures involved and then add the same for the final results. However, before we do so there is a need to first list the ways and means required to be adopted for actually taking up conservation. The first amongst these steps is to implement such ordinances, acts and laws which empower the Local Government to regulate the hours and operations of commercial areas.
As such, the first of these steps would require reduction in time of operations, culminating the night hours for shops etc at 09:00 PM in the first instance and even by 08:00 PM if the former timings do not help. The second of these steps is the daylight saving by advancing the clock in summers and the other way around for winters.
This is considered very important and its relegation during the last 5-7 years is not understood. Thirdly, we would completely ban illumination for entertainment throughout the country.
This kind of lighting includes the extravaganza seen during weddings, allied functions and for visits by dignitaries etc. Lahore PHAs mindless illumination spree for the spring festivities in a case in point - specially when entertainment cannot ever be considered as public utility to be taken up by the government.
Besides, there is also a dire need to place a ban on the mega-hoardings, which have sprung-up dwarfing and mutilating our urban landscape since the last five years or so. So much is this that most sane consider it as simply obnoxious - the extent can be ganged from the statement of the President of Karachi Chamber of Commerce and Industry that the electric load of such events in that metropolis alone crosses the 200 MW mark.
The mindset that this kind of wastage is necessary to propagate our financial health in order to attract FDI is most damaging. This will be coupled with the shutting up or closure of alternate street light points throughout Pakistan.
The fourth of these steps is to be the complete ban of window and split type ACs of more than 1 ton capacity. This step can only be taken up if the manufacturers (not many in members and also duly registered) and importers are cautioned immediately.
The fifth step would be the mass campaign by the media (public and private under a law) to educate general public to conserve power and to use the least during three peaks which are evident in the morning, the afternoon and during evenings - which is the longest and manifests itself during 05:00 PM to 11 PM each day during summers.
The sixth would be to require tubewells to operate during night time only. This can be done through forced closures during the peak hours and for propagating the fruits of night time water pumping which will reduce water evaporation etc.
The seventh of the conservation methods is to improve upon the efficiency of electric appliances in general use. This is considered to be some thing very important because Pakistan is a huge market and dumping grounds for inefficient and power guzzling appliances and gadgets.
In this regards, PSQCA and such other institutions would be required to play their roles. Another conservation step would be to banish production of fluorescent tubes and replacement of the same with energy saver lamps. However, this step is fraught with danger, because a mafia may spring out to replace the normal incandescent lamps and fluorescent tubes with even more inefficient products labelled as energy savers.
The tube makers may cry hoarse, but that should not deter the Government from its resolve to conserve or arrange for conservation measures to be adopted by the country. Here the utilities, NEPRA, Provincial Electric Inspectorates, PSQCA etc will have to move ahead in tandem.
Another important and the ninth of these steps would be mass installation of capacitors at the customer works to be supplemented by similar activity at the level of the utilities. Both Wapda and the KESC are already on the job with plans to add the required capacitance to their systems (which should be enough), while the onus of installing the low tension (voltage) capacitors would, however, lie with the people, who can be helped in this regard through subsidies.
As this type of capacitors are being manufactured in-house and also being imported from China, the subsidies for the local industry would not be much. These subsidies can also be considered as incentives to manufacturers of bulbs and tubes for possible conversion to more efficient products. A smaller programme too has to be conjured for provision of capacitors with electric motors etc.
The last of the steps would be to immediately check wastage and unauthorised use in the government itself (through the nearly 1,50,000 customers of all hues) which consumed 5.7 billion units during the FY 2005-06 manifesting a maximum demand of upto 1200-1500 MW in all.
According to figures available with the utilities, the federal and the provincial governments and the Bureau of Statistics, the wastage can be to the tune of tens of billions and is on the rise - so much so that against downsizing and reduction in the size of the government etc, there has been an increase in power usage by 12.3% in the last three years.
Most of this increase is on account of unauthorised addition of ACs etc and an ostentatious style of usage by the various functionaries. In order to make a dent here, firstly unauthorised use will have to be tackled and then, some how or the other, the wastages kept on leash.
The much vaunted scheme to reduce the number of working days from the existing six to five is not recommended by the professionals, who know the national psyche. According to them, the five day week will result in a back breaking lowering of the national productivity, which is already abysmally low.
This step can be considered for implementation after a decade of hard core education to the public and not before that. During this time period, there is need to invoke corporate responsibility in the private sector, whereby conservation would become a second habit instead of an effort hard to take up.
However, staggering of weekly holidays for offices and the industry is worth consideration. On the other hand, being a big change, its implementation would be difficult and could not be taken up in the past.
Adding up numbers, we see that the first of the above steps would lead to a saving of 350 MW, while the second of these steps mentioned in the proceeding paras would give us a relief of 150 to 200 MW. The third of the conservation steps viz ban on entertainment and ornamental illumination will result in saving 200-350 MW, with the fourth viz ban on large size ACs chipping in with the reduced demand to the level of upto 300-500 MW specially in the peak hours.
Similarly, the fifth of these steps will lead to a reduction of upto 1000 MW in demand, while the sixth, seventh, eighth and the ninth of these will jointly reduce the demand by 450-650 MW.
The last of the steps is sure to come up with a reduction in the peak-hour demand by 300 MW and may also result in savings of Rs 3-5 billion each year to the national exchequer. All the above when added up can easily arrange for reduction in the national demand by about 2000 MW in all.
From these calculations, it is concluded that it is only conservation, if taken up earnestly, that can result in a reduction of 2000 MW of demand. This is also the least cost solution because addition of 2000 MW of generation needs an investment of little above US $2 billion (or more than Rs 120 billion), besides an equal investment for transmission and distribution of such a level of power.
Conservation thus can result in a national saving of US $4 billion (at the least) or Rs 240 billion and it all would also allow the engines of growth to keep on running.
Conversely, we see that in case conservation is not taken up through a very strong political will, both the Pakistani agriculture and industrial sectors would badly flounder. This can lead to a stunted economic growth and so on. We would also see blackouts.
From this, we infer that the only solution to the present power shortage is taking up conservation and nothing else. This, however, does not mean that the PPIB, AEDB, Wapda and the KESC should not strive to add on to the national generation, transmission and distribution structures.
But we also need to understand that private sector alone will not be able to deliver, in case the public sector relegates addition to the power sector to the former alone.
(The writer is Member Central Committee IEEEP.)
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