Soybean futures at the Chicago Board of Trade rose on Thursday, led higher by the 2008 contracts, traders said. "It's interesting with what's happening with November '08. The deferred months are leading the rally as there's concern about getting enough acres out of South America," said Dan Cekander, analyst with Fimat USA.
That trend began on Monday. The November 2008 contract has climbed 50-1/4 cents this week, hitting a contract high the past two days. But the rally was made in thin trade. The current corn/soy relationship is encouraging US farmers to plant more corn at the expense of fewer soybeans. While that is a supportive feature for the new-crop 2007 soy contracts, it is more of a worry in the year ahead as US supplies are expected to shrink.
The rally in the 2008 contracts is trying to encourage South American farmers to pick up the slack and plant more soybeans in the years ahead, traders said. The $2 rally in New York crude oil to above $61 a barrel in the spot month was also supportive.
May soybeans closed 5-1/4 cents higher at $7.71-3/4. The deferred months ended 3 to 13 cents higher, with the biggest jump in November 2008 - closing 13 up at $8.39-1/4. CIF soy values at the US Gulf fell sharply after the CBOT rally, with new-crop values for October and November down the most, CIF traders said Thursday afternoon.
The soybean rally supported the products and soyoil got an added boost from crude oil. Given the increased speculative capital invested in commodities, they tend to move in tandem. May soymeal ended $1.10 per ton higher at $223.40, with the back months up 60 cents to $7.70.
Soyoil ended 0.15 to 0.35 cent per lb higher, with May up 0.18 cent at 31.28 cents. Commodity funds bought 2,000 soybean futures, 1,500 soymeal and 1,500 soyoil, traders said. Volume was on the light. Soybean trade was pegged at 72,172 futures and 10,274 options. Estimated soymeal volume was 27,487 futures and 2,607 options. Soyoil trade estimated at 24,833 futures and 1,696 options. Weekly export data released before the open was considered market neutral.
The US Agriculture Department said Thursday that 523,300 tonnes of soybeans (523,200 tonnes of old-crop) were sold for export last week, within estimates for 350,000 to 550,000 tonnes. Mexico, not China, was the biggest buyer with 233,400 tonnes.
US soymeal export sales were 111,400 tonnes last week, but only 17,500 tonnes were old-crop. Traders expected sales of 75,000 to 125,000 tonnes. USDA reported 10,100 tonnes of US soyoil export sales (all old-crop), close to estimates for zero to 10,000 tonnes.
Monthly crush data issued by the US Census Bureau data was slightly bearish for soybeans and oil. The monthly crush was smaller-than-expected while soyoil stocks grew. The bureau reported that processors crushed 136.86 million bushels of soybeans in February, below the average estimate of 138.0 million.
Census said US soyoil stocks reached 3.318 billion lbs in February, above the average estimate of 3.224 billion. But soymeal stocks were below expectations, which was viewed as slightly supportive. Census reported meal stocks at 292,640 tons, compared with the average estimate for 357,500 tons.
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