The monsoon rains in February 2007 have pushed up water availability for Rabi crops to the highest level. According to official sources, the higher rains in February 2007 raised the irrigation water availability approximately by 1.8 MAF for the Rabi FY07 season, 11.3 percent higher over Rabi FY06.
Irsa revised irrigation water availability from 31.6 MAF to 33.4 MAF for FY07 Rabi season. The rains in February 2007 would particularly benefit the wheat crop and vegetables and fruits. This may prove to be exceptionally beneficial for Balochistan, the Cholistan desert.
These rains also diluted the impact of the acute shortage of irrigation water in Punjab's southern regions (Muzaffargarh, Rajanpur, Jampur, Kot Mithan, Fazilpur and Dera Ghazi Khan) due to the on-going execution of the modernisation and rehabilitation of Taunsa Barrage.
According to official sources, despite higher farm incomes, better irrigation water availability and higher credit disbursement by banks, fertiliser off-take declined in the first half of FY07.
Meanwhile, encouraged by higher support prices, increased irrigation water availability, the subsidy on the purchase of non-urea fertilisers, and favourable weather conditions, growers increased the cultivated area for wheat. Latest available data (for January 23, 2007) indicated that this had risen by 0.7 percent YoY (or 56 thousand hectares), achieving the cultivation area target for the year.
The crop is also expected to benefit from significant and widespread rains during December 2006 and February 2007; the rains at this stage are likely to lead to heavier wheat kernel and reduce pest incidence. While the unseasoned rains have also caused minor damage in some areas, in net terms Pakistan is expected to record yet another bumper wheat harvest, if conditions remain favourable.
In anticipation of a bumper wheat harvest, the SBP has proactively moved to allow ample credit lines to the private sector for the purchase of wheat. Effective policy measures for other crops are also required to assure incentives to farmers. For example, continued dispute on the pricing for the sugarcane crop is not only hurting farmers, it is also damaging for the future growth prospects of the crop as well as agriculture.
Statistics illustrates that during the period (FY00-FY03) when support price for wheat was left unchanged; production of wheat remained around 19 million tons. In contrast, a major stimulus to production was evident due to the continued rise in the support price of wheat since FY04 as an effective incentive to farmers. As a result, the realised harvest of wheat exceeded 20 million tons each year.
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