India, the United States and other main trading powers assemble here Wednesday to try to salvage global trade talks aimed at lifting millions out of poverty. But hopes are slim a breakthrough will emerge from the discussions among the G-4 group - the European Union, the United States, Brazil and India - regarded as the main players, analysts said.
The meeting will mark the first time trade ministers of the G-4 nations have met since the Doha Round of world trade talks collapsed last July when the United States refused to give more ground in cutting generous farm subsidies. The most that can be hoped "is for people to come on the same page and agree there is a need to move forward," said T.S. Vishwanath, head of international trade policy at the Confederation of Indian Industry.
The World Trade Organisation (WTO) is seeking to conjure up agreement in the Doha Round before the end of June when the fast track trade negotiating powers of US President George Bush are set to expire.
"We need to intensify and accelerate the process of negotiation," EU Trade Commissioner Peter Mandelson said before the gathering. "If we fail, Doha's prospects for this year will be lost," he warned.
An agreement between the world's two biggest trading powers, the United States and EU, and the two leading developing nations India and Brazil, is seen as vital to hopes of brokering a compromise among the WTO's 150 members this year. Developing nations are pushing the United States and other wealthy nations to significantly cut farm subsidies, while poorer countries are being pressed to allow more access to their markets.
The ministers will hold bilateral meetings Wednesday before formal four-way talks on Thursday at which they will discuss steps needed to "enable a successful conclusion of the Doha Round," Indian Commerce ministry spokeswoman Shipra Biswas said.
The sessions will be attended by Indian Commerce Minister Kamal Nath, US trade representative Susan Schwab and Brazilian Foreign Minister Celso Amorim. Japan and Australia will also join the negotiations later on Thursday.
If a breakthrough can be achieved by June, a conclusion to the Doha talks could be reached in about eight months, WTO officials say. Otherwise the Doha round, launched in the Qatari capital in 2001 and called a once-in-a-generation chance to help bring millions out of poverty, risks years of delay.
"There doesn't seem to be any willingness to compromise so in that kind of situation, it's difficult to expect any favourable outcome," said D.H. Pai Panandiker, president of the RPG Foundation, an Indian economic think-tank.
The deadlock over attempts to cut subsidies and import tariffs on farm products is regarded as the key stumbling block to expanding free and fair trade, which also covers industrial goods and services.
Nath has said there is "no commitment by India on the deadline" and that he would prefer no deal to a "bad deal." "We are hoping for movement but we need to see how much other countries are willing to meet the needs of the developing nations," an Indian government spokesman told AFP.
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