French analyst Strategies Grains on Thursday lowered its estimate of the European Union's 2007 grain harvest by 300,000 tonnes to 284.6 million tonnes, a total crop that is still 9 percent above last year.
EU-27 soft wheat output was put at 127.3 million tonnes, down from 127.4 million last month, also 9 percent up on 2006. The analyst said winter cereals had developed in good conditions but the exceptionally mild weather had created an environment that also favoured the spread of plant diseases.
"Yields will now depend on the ability of farmers to keep the spread of disease in check," it said, adding that any late frosts and rainfall levels would also have an impact.
"Rainfall will therefore be indispensable in the second half of April as much for the development of the winter crops as for the spring crops," Strategies Grains said in its monthly report. The largest crop revision concerned barley, down some 400,000 tonnes on the analyst's forecast last month to 60.2 million tonnes, still up 8 percent on last year's harvest. Maize production was revised up by some 200,000 tonnes to 57.4 million tonnes, also up 8 percent on 2006.
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