Last month was a volatile one for Pakistans equity market, as an array of negative news emerged from all sides which influenced investor sentiments and led to a choppy performance.
Investors saw the regulator stepping up and tightening screws on in-house badla financing in response to the broker defaults. The Panama-gate issue dragged on with the apex court now reserving the judgement. The security situation in the country, which was deemed to be improving, took a hit with multiple blasts around the country.
In spite of security fears and growing uncertainty over liquidity and politics, the benchmark PSX ended flat down only 0.46 percent compared to the previous month. The all-shares index slipped 1.03 percent with over-valued scrips of weak fundamentals taking the most of the brunt.
On the investment flow side, individual investors were the top net sellers during February with an outflow of $43 million. Foreign portfolio investment although still negative with an outflow of $29 million showed signs of slowing down as re-balancing of EM and FM funds appears to be done. Mutual funds and insurance companies were top net buyers with inflow of $48 million and $16 million respectively.
According to data compiled by Mutual Funds Association of Pakistan (MUFAP), equity funds average return was negative 0.48 percent as compared to the negative 0.46 percent return of the KSE-100 index. In this category, UBL Stock Advantage Fund was the top performing fund with a positive return of 1.54 percent, followed by ABL Stock Fund with a return of 0.67 percent.
Mutual funds investing in shariah compliant stocks gave average return of 0.16 percent as compared to the benchmark KMI-30 index return of negative 0.29 percent. In this category NAFA Islamic Energy Fund was the best performer with a return of 1.19 percent. Sui Northern Gas Pipeline (PSX: SNGP) was instrumental in generating alpha for the fund as the stock went up close to 20 percent in February.
The second best performer in shariah equity category was also NAFAs Islamic Stock Fund with a return of 1.15 percent. Overall, shariah funds had a stable month because of heavy exposure in stocks like ENGRO, LUCK and SNGP.
Asset Allocation funds which invest in various asset classes posted an average return of negative 0.18 percent. The best performer in this category was Lakson Asset Allocation Fund with a positive return of 1.51 percent.
All mutual funds seem to be positioning themselves for the MSCI upgrade which is due in May. The stocks which will be part of the MSCI index have held up relatively well in the face of any selling and some have even gone up while the whole market has been in negative zone. Individual investors can be expected to take cue from this trend and focus towards big cap stocks, which are seen receiving foreign inflows going forward.
The market is likely to remain sideways until there is clarity on the Panama issue and in case the decision was not up to market expectations negative pressure can take over. It will be the ultimate test of this bull-market strength and the resilience of local investors.
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