Bulgarians vote in their first elections to the European Parliament on Sunday, frustrated that months after EU entry the Socialist-led government has little to show in the fight against rampant corruption and poverty.
Following EU accession in January, Sofia's ruling coalition became engulfed in a graft scandal involving the economy minister, the country's top investigator, a large utility company and a state tobacco monopoly. Surveys show fraud is costing the state millions of euros (dollars) a year, while many Bulgarians still lack basic services such as flush toilets.
"There is a feeling of social injustice," said Ognian Shentov, head of Sofia's Centre for the Study of Democracy. "Once again, we will witness a protest vote."
Bulgaria joined the EU after a late flurry of reforms of its communist-era judiciary and state institutions. But it still has to prove it is serious about fighting crime to avoid sanctions, possibly soon after a June 27 progress report from Brussels.
EU diplomats say member states are increasingly concerned, with some going as far as to say the Black Sea state, and its larger northern neighbour Romania, were admitted too early. "Recent scandals show a clear problem in the coalition and the Socialist party in terms of corruption," said Dimitar Chobanov, senior economist at the Institute for Market Economics in Sofia.
"They made commitments before the European Commission to convict corrupt officials, to reform the judiciary, but there is no result. Criminals are still on the streets." Surveys show the ruling coalition's NMS centrist party of former king Simeon Saxe-Coburg bearing the brunt of voter disappointment over the government's inability to fight graft.
Its biggest coalition partner, the Socialist party (BSP) and the third member, the ethnic Turkish MRF party, are likely to escape unscathed, due to traditionally loyal voter bases. Turnout is expected at 30-40 percent, underlining the frustration of voters.
"I am not going to vote. The politicians are doing nothing. It's been like this for the 17 years," said Georgi Evtimov, a 70-year-old retired engineer. Surveys show the BSP winning up to seven of Bulgaria's 18 seats in the European Parliament. MRF could win three or four seats and the NMS one or two.
Another five may go to a new rightist group, the GERB party of maverick Sofia mayor Boiko Borisov, which campaigns on promises to fight corruption and help business. Diplomats say crime gangs control large parts of Bulgaria's economy through networks of legitimate and illegitimate business and help from high-level officials. Socialist Prime Minister Sergei Stanishev rejects accusations of complacency about crime. "Nothing will remain hidden. We are not going to conceal anything," Stanishev said on state television.
Despite crime, Bulgaria's small economy is one of the fastest growing in Europe, helped by billions of euros of foreign capital which is being used to modernise production and invest in real estate.
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